NOAA 2013 Hurricane Season Predictions

Hurricane Isaac, August 28, 2012/NOAA

Predictions for 2013 Hurricane Season

We've already provided you with NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Prediction as well as Colorado State University's April Prediction for the Atlantic Basin.  NOAA has just released its predictions for the Atlantic Basin and East Pacific region.

NOAA Expects Below-normal Central Pacific Hurricane Season 

CSU 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction 

Looking Back and Looking Ahead

Hurricane Season Approaching 

Looking for past & current hurricanes?  Click Image or Here

ACTIVE ATLANTIC PREDICTED

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an active season and that turned out to be the case. The image above, courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane Center (NHC), was from Hurricane Isaac which made landfall in Louisiana battering the region. It was one of the most destructive and disruptive storms of the 2012 Hurricane Season. On the 7th Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, Louisiana had another direct hit: Tale of Two Hurricanes Seven Years Apart.

Looking Back at 2012

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season was above average.   This year marks the thirteenth above-normal season since the current high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes began in 1995.

Atlantic Basin

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2012 May Prediction	2012 Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	9-15	19
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	4-8	10
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	1-3	2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	64-140	144

Note:  NOAA issued an updated prediction in August 2012:

 Hurricane Predictions for Remainder of Atlantic Season

For more details, read the complete NOAA 2012 Atlantic Seasonal Climate Summary

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive

The 2012 Eastern Northern Pacific Hurricane Season was well above average with the number of named storms almost double the average.  Hurricanes in all categories were at the high end of the predicted ranges and also double the norm.

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2012 May Prediction	2012 Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	12 - 18	17
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	5 - 9	10
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	2 - 5	4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	70 - 130

For more details, read the complete NOAA 2012 Eastern Pacific Seasonal Climate Summary 

Looking Ahead to 2013

As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post,  CSU 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction, for their 2013 predictions.

Atlantic Basin

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2013 Prediction	CSU 2013 Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (12.0)	12-18	18
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)	6-10	9
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)	3-6	5
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0)	105 - 200	165

NOAA’s 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with the possibility that the season could be very active. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2013 Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	11 - 16
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	5 - 8
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	1 -4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	60 -105

NOAA’s 2013 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above normal season. 

Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season.  According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.

 

Hurricane Season Dates 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.

Download the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide (PDF) 

 
 

This article starts our 2013 Hurricane Preparedness Series

Be Sure To Visit All Week for More Articles

NOAA 2012 Hurricane Season Predictions

NOAA predicts a Near-normal 2012 Atlantic & Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

  NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its annual Spring Hurricane predictions today. 

Atlantic: Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season.


Eastern Pacific: Climate conditions point to a near-normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 30 percent probability of a below-normal season and a 20 percent probability of an above-normal season.

Looking for past & current hurricanes?  Click Image or Here

Looking Back and Looking Ahead

Hurricane Season Approaching 

In the image above, courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Irene made landfall at approximately 7:30 am EDT on Aug. 27, 2011, near Cape Lookout, N.C. with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (Category 1). This NOAA GOES-13 satellite image captures Irene’s landfall moment.

This was the scariest  moment during the 2011 Hurricane Season.   NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an active season, but as Warnings Issued for Hurricane Irene, it was also the finest hour for NOAA's NHC as they had accurately predicted the path of the storm four days earlier.

Looking Back at 2011

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season was above average, with 2011 ranking as the 14th busiest season since 1966.

Atlantic Basin

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2011 Prediction	2011 Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	12-18	19
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	6-10	7
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	3-6	4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	105 - 200	138

For more details, read the complete NOAA 2011 Atlantic Seasonal Climate Summary

The 2011 Eastern Northern Pacific Hurricane Season was well above average. Despite predictions of a near-normal season, there were eleven named storms, ten hurricanes and six major hurricanes, all of which were above-average.

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2011 Prediction	2011 Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	9 - 15	11
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	5 - 8	10
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	1 - 3	6
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	45 - 105	118

For more details, read the complete NOAA 2011 Eastern Pacific Seasonal Climate Summary
 

Looking Ahead to 2012

As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in  April and NOAA releases its predictions in late May.  See our blog post,  Below Average 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction, for CSU's 2012 predictions.  They discontinued their December predictions due to previous inaccuracies.

Atlantic Basin

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2011 Prediction	CSU 2011 Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	9 - 15	10
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	4 - 8	4
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	1 - 3	2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	65 - 140	70

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2011 Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	9 - 15
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	5 - 8
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	1 - 3
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	45 -105

Based on these early season predictions, and despite the early jump start on the Hurricane Season, this year should be near-normal.   Of course, that doesn't imply that we should be complacent.  It only takes one major hurricane making landfall to cause significant loss of life and property.

Additional References

NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA predicts near-normal Eastern Pacific hurricane season 

NOAA expects below-normal Central Pacific hurricane season  

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2012 - PDF Format

Atlantic Hurricane Summary Archive 

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season 

Active 2011 hurricane season breaks 'Hurricane Amnesia' 

The 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season A Climate Perspective 

2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season - National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Preparedness 2011 - Basics & History

Hurricane Basics & History

First In the 2011 Series

Hurricane Preparedness Week playlist on YouTube

Looking for past or current hurricanes?  Click Image or Here

President Obama declared May 22-28 “National Hurricane Preparedness Week." FEMA, along with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is helping to raise awareness of steps that can be taken to help protect citizens, and their communities and property. 

What is a Hurricane?

A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, which is a generic term for a low pressure system that generally forms in the tropics. The cyclone is accompanied by thunderstorms and, in the Northern Hemisphere, a counterclockwise circulation of winds near the earth's surface. Tropical cyclones are classified as follows:

* Sustained winds A 1-minute average wind measured at about 33 ft (10 meters) above the surface. ** 1 knot = 1 nautical mile per hour or 1.15 statute miles per hour. Abbreviated as "kt".

Tropical Depression
An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds* of 38 mph (33 kt**) or less

Tropical Storm
An organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)

Hurricane
An intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 kt) or higher

Familiarize yourself with the terms that are used to identify a hurricane.

• A hurricane watch means a hurricane is possible in your area. Be prepared to evacuate. Monitor local radio and television news outlets or listen to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest developments.
• A hurricane warning is when a hurricane is expected in your area. If local authorities advise you to evacuate, leave immediately.

Hurricanes are classified into five categories based on their wind speed, central pressure, and damage potential. Category Three and higher hurricanes are considered major hurricanes, though Categories One and Two are still extremely dangerous and warrant your full attention.The following chart details the categories and the damage that can result from a storm with that strength.

 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Scale Number (Category)	Sustained Winds (MPH)	Damage	Storm Surge
1	74-95	Minimal: Unanchored mobile homes, vegetation and signs.	4-5 feet
2	96-110	Moderate: All mobile homes, roofs, small crafts, flooding.	6-8 feet
3	111-130	Extensive: Small buildings, low-lying roads cut off.	9-12 feet
4	131-155	Extreme: Roofs destroyed, trees down, roads cut off, mobile homes destroyed. Beach homes flooded.	13-18 feet
5	More than 155	Catastrophic: Most buildings destroyed. Vegetation destroyed. Major roads cut off. Homes flooded.	Greater than 18 feet

Hurricane History

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Track Map (click to enlarge)


In the following article, we look at the 2010 Hurricane season in review, comparing the forecast to actual results.   We also look at NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2011 Season.

NOAA 2011 Hurricane Season Predictions

Hurricane Assessments	Billion Dollar Storms
9/03: Hurricane Isabel 12/02: Super Typhoon Pongsona 6/01: Tropical Storm Allison 9/96: Hurricane Fran 7/96: Hurricane Bertha 9/95: Hurricane Marilyn 7/94: Tropical Storm Alberto 9/92: Hurricane Iniki 8/92: Hurricane Andrew 9/89: Hurricane Hugo NHC Archive of Hurricane Seasons	10/05 Hurricane Wilma 9/05: Hurricane Rita 8/05: Hurricane Katrina 9/03: Hurricane Isabel 9/99: Hurricane Floyd 9/98: Hurricane Georges 8/98: Hurricane Bonnie 9/96: Hurricane Fran 10/95: Hurricane Opal 7/94: Tropical Storm Alberto 8/92: Hurricane Andrew Other events since 1980

Central North Pacific Hurricane History (1800s - present)

(Compiled by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Honolulu).

We will continue coverage of Hurricane Preparedness Week by looking at some of the hazards starting tomorrow.  Additional Hurricane information can be found in our static Weather tab.

NOAA 2011 Hurricane Season Predictions

Looking Back and Looking Ahead

Hurricane Season Approaching 

Looking for past & current hurricanes?  Click Image or Here

The graphic above, courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane Center (NHC), was the scariest  moment during the 2010 Hurricane Season.   NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an active season, but having three active hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin at the same time was definitely something to keep the scientists on edge.

Looking Back at 2010

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season was above average, with 2010 ranking as the tenth most active season since 1950.

Atlantic Basin

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2010 Prediction	2010 Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	14-23	19
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	8 -14	12
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	3-7	5
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	155 - 270	190

For more details, read the complete NOAA 2010 Atlantic Seasonal Climate Summary

The 2010 Eastern Northern Pacific Hurricane Season was well below average. The seven named storms was the lowest amount since the advent of routine satellite imagery in the basin in 1971.   The total number of three hurricanes was the lowest since 1971.

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2010 Prediction	2010 Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	9 - 15	7
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	4 - 8	3
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	1 - 3	2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	45 - 105	50

For more details, read the complete NOAA 2010 Eastern Pacific Seasonal Climate Summary

Looking Ahead to 2011

Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2011 - PDF Format

As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post,  Colorado State University: Above Average 2011 Hurricane Forecst, for their 2011 predictions.

Atlantic Basin

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2011 Prediction	CSU 2011 Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	12-18	16
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	6-10	9
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	3-6	5
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	105 - 200	160

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2011 Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	9 - 15
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	5 - 8
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	1 - 3
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	45 -105

Based on these early season predictions, it would appear that the Atlantic Basic will be active again while the Pacific will remain relatively below average.

New Hurricane Safety Video and Audio Available for Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 22-28)

Hurricane Season Dates 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.

RELATED BLOG POSTS:

Hurricane East Coast Awareness Tour 2011

Above Average 2011 Hurricane Forecast

This article starts our 2011 Hurricane Preparedness Series

Be Sure To Visit All Week for More Articles

Be Prepared for Hurricanes

Washington, DC, May 27, 2010 -- NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D. and FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate address reporters at a news conference releasing NOAA's outlook for the 2010 Hurricane Season. FEMA/Bill Koplitz 

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here

Above Normal: Atlantic      

Below Normal: Central & Eastern Pacific

An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. See Related Blog Posts section below for links to NOAA outlooks for each region as well as hurricane preparedness information.

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

The president recently designated May 23-29, 2010, as National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA and FEMA encourage those living in hurricane-prone states to use this time to review their overall preparedness. More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at www.Ready.gov and www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.

"Preventing the loss of life and minimizing the damage to property from hurricanes are responsibilities that are shared by all"

"FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we're prepared for hurricane season," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it's important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can't control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you're ready."

FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate on the importance of personal preparedness and new ways to follow FEMA during the 2010 hurricane season that begins on June 1.

Disaster Prevention should include:

•  Developing a Family Plan
•  Creating a Disaster Supply Kit
•  Having a Place to Go
•  Securing your Home
•  Having a Pet Plan

"How To" guides for protecting your property from flooding & high winds. (FEMA)


Related Links

NOAA Predicts Below Normal Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook
Colorado State University
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
NOAA/ National Weather Service
WMO Severe Weather Info Centre
National Hurricane Center (NHC)
NWS Regional Offices and Centers
Hurricane Preparedness
Realtime monitoring of tropical East Pacific conditions

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather tab above.

Related Blog Posts

Above Average 2010 Hurricane Forecast
NOAA 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2010 Central Pacific Hurricane Prediction
Hurricane Hazards - Inland Flooding
Huricane Hazards - High Winds
Hurricane Hazards - Storm Surge
Hurricane Preparedness Week 2010
Travel With Protection Against Unexpected
Weather



Hurricane Preparedness Week  - May 23 - 29, 2010

NOAA 2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA 2010 Hurricane Season Outlooks (May)

2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Prediction

Every May the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a preliminary Eastern Pacific hurricane season outlook.  There are no updates planned for this outlook. July - September are the peak months of the season.    NOAA Press Release

Looking for current & past hurricanes?  Click Image or Here

The outlook is produced in collaboration with scientists from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD). The Eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140oW north of the equator.

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season 
May 15 - November 30

For 2010, the outlook calls for a 75% chance of a below normal season, a 20% chance of a near normal season, and only a 5% chance of an above normal season. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season features approximately 15 named storms (maximum sustained surface winds between 39-73 mph), with nine of those becoming hurricanes (maximum sustained surface winds of at least 74 mph) and four becoming major hurricanes (maximum sustained surface winds exceeding 111 mph, categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale).

Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season.  According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.

Allowing for uncertainties, NOAA estimates a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity this season:

• 9-15 named storms
• 4-8 hurricanes
• 1-3 major hurricanes
• An ACE range 45%-95% of the median

This outlook is general guide to the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular region.

The climate factors expected to guide the 2010 eastern Pacific hurricane season are 1) a continuation of conditions that have been suppressing activity since 1995, and 2) either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions during the peak months (July-September) of the season, with La Niña becoming increasingly likely.  (see ENSO forecast models)

As a service to my readers, we will monitor tropical storms and provide updates. Starting June 1st, we'll add the RSS feeds so that you'll be able to get up to the minute forecasts and advisories from NOAA. Cruise lines monitor tropical storms and may provide advisories of their own. Those will also be shared with you.

Related Links

NOAA Predicts Below Normal Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook
Colorado State University
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
NOAA/ National Weather Service
WMO Severe Weather Info Centre
National Hurricane Center (NHC)
NWS Regional Offices and Centers
Hurricane Preparedness
Realtime monitoring of tropical East Pacific conditions

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather tab above.

Related Blog Posts

Above Average 2010 Hurricane Forecast
NOAA 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2010 Central Pacific Hurricane Prediction
Hurricane Hazards - Inland Flooding
Huricane Hazards - High Winds
Hurricane Hazards - Storm Surge
Hurricane Preparedness Week 2010
Travel With Protection Against Unexpected
Weather



Hurricane Preparedness Week  - May 23 - 29, 2010

NOAA 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Conditions During Peak Months (Credit: NOAA)

 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction

Every May the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a preliminary Atlantic hurricane season outlook.  An updated outlook is released in August, which is the beginning of the peak months of the season.    NOAA Press Release

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here

The outlook is produced in collaboration with scientists from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD). The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

Atlantic Hurricane Season

June 1 to November 30

For 2010, the outlook calls for a 85% chance of an above normal season, a 10% chance of a near normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below normal season.  An average Atlantic hurricane season features approximately 11 named storms (maximum sustained surface winds between 39-73 mph), with six of those becoming hurricanes (maximum sustained surface winds of at least 74 mph) and two becoming major hurricanes (maximum sustained surface winds exceeding 111 mph, categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale).

Since 1995, we have been in an era of high activity with an average of  14.5 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes with an average ACE index of 160% of the median.

Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season.  According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.

NOAA estimates a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:

• 14-23 Named Storms
• 8-14 Hurricanes
• 3-7 Major Hurricanes
• ACE range of 155% - 270% of the median

This outlook is general guide to the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular region.

Due to the ongoing oil crisis in the Gulf of Mexico, NOAA's outlook includes statistical data of tropical cyclone activity for this region. Historically, all above normal seasons have produced at least one named storm in the Gulf of Mexico, and 95% of those seasons have at least two named storms in the Gulf. Most of this activity (80%) occurs during August-October. However, 50% of above normal seasons have had at least one named storm in the region during June-July.

Three climate factors, all of which are conducive historically to increased tropical cyclone activity, were included in the model used to formulate this outlook. These climate factors are: 1) the tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, 2) a continuation of exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region, and 3) either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions, with La Niña becoming increasingly likely.  (see ENSO forecast models)

As a service to my readers, we will monitor tropical storms and provide updates. Starting June 1st, we'll add the RSS feeds so that you'll be able to get up to the minute forecasts and advisories from NOAA. Cruise lines monitor tropical storms and may provide advisories of their own. Those will also be shared with you.

Related Links

NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season
Above Average 2010 Hurricane Forecast  (Colorado State University)
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
NOAA/ National Weather Service
WMO Severe Weather Info Centre
National Hurricane Center (NHC)
NWS Regional Offices and Centers
Hurricane Preparedness
Forecast Process
Realtime monitoring of tropical Atlantic conditions

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather tab above.

Related Blog Posts



Above Average 2010 Hurricane Forecast
NOAA 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2010 Central Pacific Hurricane Prediction
Hurricane Hazards - Inland Flooding
Huricane Hazards - High Winds
Hurricane Hazards - Storm Surge
Hurricane Preparedness Week 2010
Travel With Protection Against Unexpected
Weather




Hurricane Preparedness Week  - May 23 - 29, 2010