Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Below Average 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

Forecasters at the Colorado State University are predicting that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity
compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The season begins June 1st and continues through November 30th.  

Their current (April  4th) forecast calls for below-average activity in the Atlantic this Hurricane Season.  They discontinued their December forecast this year citing previous inaccuracies.

It is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April.
NOAA won't even make their first prediction until the end of May.  So, why does Colorado State University's team of scientists create this forecast?   Mainly because the public is curious about predictions based on the current global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.   The forecasting team created their predictions using a statistical model based on 29 years worth of data.

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here
The scientists are anticipating a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El NiƱo event this summer and fall are relatively high.

The April forecast calls for 10 named tropical storms with 4 strengthening to hurricane status.   Of those hurricanes, 2 are predicted to be a major hurricane (Category 3,4, or 5).

The team forecasts a 42% chance of one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline (compared to 52% for last century), 24% for U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (average for last century is 31%),  24% for Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for last century is 30%) and a 34% chance for the Caribbean (compared to 42% average for last century).  More reading:  Current and Past Forecasts


Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
Issue Date
  4 April 2012
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 10
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 40
Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 4
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) 16
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) 2
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0)  3
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 70
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) 75

Another reason why Colorado State University publishes forecasts is for hurricane preparedness.   We too are publishing this information, along with updates throughout hurricane season, to help protect life and property when danger approaches.   Additional information and links can be found on the Weather Tab of this blog.

As I've said many times,  the cruise line industry has safety of passengers, crew, and vessels as their number one priority.   The cruise lines work closely with the NHC and other agencies to monitor all sorts of weather conditions, including tropical storms.   The ships may alter courses and cancel ports of call in order to maintain the level of safety for all onboard.  We will keep you posted about any known itinerary changes during hurricane season.   Should your cruise itinerary change due to a tropical storm, don't be upset, but rather thank the Captain and crew for taking you out of harm's way.

Hurricane Preparedness Week - May 27th through June 2, 2012

No comments: