Wednesday, May 26, 2010

NOAA 2010 Central Pacific Hurricane Prediction

NOAA CPHC Satellite Image
“Prepare! Watch! Act!”

NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center  (CPHC) announced that projected climate conditions point to a below normal hurricane season in the Central Pacific basin this year.
Central Pacific 
Hurricane Season
June 1 to November 30

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) issues tropical cyclone warnings, watches, advisories, discussions, and statements for all tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific from 140 Degrees West Longitude to the International Dateline.

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Honolulu activates the CPHC when: (1) a tropical cyclone moves into the Central Pacific from the Eastern Pacific, (2) a tropical cyclone forms in the Central Pacific, or (3) a tropical cyclone moves into the Central Pacific from the West.

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here
The seasonal hurricane outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. For 2010, the outlook calls for a 70% chance of a below normal season, a 25% chance of a near normal season, and only a 5% chance of an above normal season.

An average season has four or five tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.  NOAA's CPHC is predicting two to three tropical cyclones in the central Pacific during the 2010 season.

When formulating a tropical cyclone prediction, current climate patterns are compared with historical results.  The current model included two climate factors:  the ongoing low-activity era in the central Pacific, which partly reflects fewer eastern Pacific hurricanes moving into the region and the expectation of either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific, neither of which favors tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific.

The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity and does not predict whether, where, when, or how many any of these systems will affect Hawaii.

As a service to my readers, we will monitor tropical storms and provide updates.   Starting June 1st, we'll add the RSS feeds so that you'll be able to get up to the minute forecasts and advisories from NOAA.   Cruise lines monitor tropical storms and may provide advisories of their own.   Those will also be shared with you.

Related Links

Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center  (CPHC)
WMO Severe Weather Info Centre
National Hurricane Center (NHC)
NWS Regional Offices and Centers
Hurricane Preparedness

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather tab above.

Updated Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts are due out this week.   It is anticipated that the Atlantic forecast will be more severe than the Pacific.    We will bring you the updated forecasts when they are published.

Related Blog Posts

Above Average 2010 Hurricane Forecast
NOAA 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2010 Central Pacific Hurricane Prediction
Hurricane Hazards - Inland Flooding
Huricane Hazards - High Winds
Hurricane Hazards - Storm Surge
Hurricane Preparedness Week 2010
Travel With Protection Against Unexpected

Hurricane Preparedness Week  - May 23 - 29, 2010

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