Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Hurricane Predictions for Remainder of Atlantic Season

What's the Remainder of 2012 Atlantic 
Hurricane Season Look Like?

Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2012 (PDF)

The tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University looks at the Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast several times a year.   The initial forecast is released in early April with the second report being released at the start of the season in June.

We are now entering what typically is the start of the active part of the season with storms forming in the vicinity of Cape Verde Islands.   The chart above reflects the storms to date along with the revised forecast.

According to the report:  

"We anticipate a slightly-below average remainder of the hurricane season this year due to
an anticipated weak El Niño event and a tropical Atlantic that is less favorable than in the
past two years. This forecast is a slight increase from activity predicted in early June, due
to a slower-than-anticipated onset of El Niño and a somewhat more favorable tropical
Atlantic than observed earlier this year. We expect a slightly below-average probability
of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall."

Not "Out of the Woods"

At first read, you might think we have nothing to worry about.  Well, if you review the chart closely, you'll notice there have not been any major hurricanes in the Atlantic so far this year, however, there are at least 2 still predicted.   That means, there's a lot of potential for a powerful storm.

Read the entire article (PDF link above) to get complete details about their forecast, including background information about how they come to these conclusions.

NOAA Adjusts Prediction

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, released it's updated outlook which still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season. It increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.

The Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half.  The revised numbers are as follows:

  • 12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
  • 5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
  • 2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
Read the complete report:  NOAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño

Additional References

No comments: