Thursday, April 8, 2010

Above Average 2010 Hurricane Forecast

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
Forecasters at the Colorado State University are predicting an active hurricane season for 2010.   The season begins June 1st and continues through November 30th.  Their current forecast calls for above-average activity and it increases their estimates since the initial assessment done in December, 2009.

It is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April. NOAA won't even make their first prediction until sometime in May.  So, why is Colorado State University's team of scientists creating this forecast?   Mainly because the public is curious about predictions based on the current global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.   The forecasting team created their predictions using a statistical model based on 58 years worth of data. 
The scientists believe that the warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and the anticipated weakening of  El Niño results in an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. The forecast does not predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike nor the probability of landfall for any one location.

The April forecast calls for 15 named tropical storms with 8 strengthening to hurricane status.   Of those hurricanes, 4 are predicted to be a major hurricane (Category 3,4, or 5).   The team forecasts a 69% chance of one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline (compared to 52% for last century) and a 58% chance for the Caribbean (compared to 42% average for last century).  More reading:  Current and Past Forecasts

Another reason why Colorado State University publishes forecasts is for hurricane preparedness.   We too are publishing this information, along with updates throughout hurricane season, to help protect life and property when danger approaches.   Additional information and links can be found on the Weather Tab of this blog.

As I've said many times,  the cruise line industry has safety of passengers, crew, and vessels as their number one priority.   The cruise lines work closely with the NHC and other agencies to monitor all sorts of weather conditions, including tropical storms.   The ships may alter courses and cancel ports of call in order to maintain the level of safety for all onboard.  We will keep you posted about any known itinerary changes during hurricane season.   Should your cruise itinerary change due to a tropical storm, don't be upset, but rather thank the Captain and crew for taking you out of harm's way.

Hurricane Preparedness Week - May 23rd through May 29th, 2010


No comments: