 |
| Hurricane Isaac, August 28, 2012/NOAA |
Predictions for 2013 Hurricane Season
We've already provided you with NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Prediction as well as Colorado State University's April Prediction for the Atlantic Basin. NOAA has just released its predictions for the Atlantic Basin and East Pacific region.
Looking Back and Looking Ahead
Hurricane Season Approaching
Looking Back at 2012
In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you
can easily see that the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season was above
average. This year marks the thirteenth above-normal season since the current high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes began in 1995.
Atlantic Basin
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2012
May Prediction | 2012
Actual Results |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 9-15 | 19 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 4-8 | 10 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 1-3 |
2 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 64-140 | 144 |
Note: NOAA issued an updated prediction in August 2012:
The 2012 Eastern Northern Pacific Hurricane Season was well above average with the number of named storms almost double the average. Hurricanes in all categories were at the high end of the predicted ranges and also double the norm.
East Pacific
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2012
May Prediction | 2012
Actual Results |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 12 - 18 | 17 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 5 - 9 | 10 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 2 - 5 |
4 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 70 - 130 |
|
Looking Ahead to 2013
As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post, CSU 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction,
for their 2013 predictions.
Atlantic Basin
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2013
Prediction | CSU 2013
Prediction |
| Named Storms (NS) (12.0) | 12-18 | 18 |
| Hurricanes (H) (6.5) | 6-10 | 9 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) | 3-6 | 5 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0) | 105 - 200 | 165 |
NOAA’s 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with the
possibility that the season could be
very active. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal
season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a
below-normal season.
East Pacific
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2013
Prediction |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 11 - 16 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 5 - 8 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 1 -4 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 60 -105 |
NOAA’s 2013 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season,
and a 10% chance of an above normal season.
Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index
An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season. According to
NOAA’s hurricane season classifications,
an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an
above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an
exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.
Hurricane Season Dates
This article starts our 2013 Hurricane Preparedness Series
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