Showing posts with label summary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label summary. Show all posts

Monday, June 1, 2020

2019 Hurricane Season in Review

No Retired Hurricanes for 2019
Due to Covid-19 Pandemic

Hurricane Dorian                             Courtesy: Fox News
Due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the annual week-long meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO’s) hurricane committee was canceled.

Storm names are retired if they were so deadly or destructive that the future use of the name would be insensitive - otherwise names are reused by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center on a six-year cycle.

Replacement names, to be used in 2025, would have been announced. We will have to wait another year to find out what storms from the 2019 season will be retired.

There are some likely candidates for retirement when the WMO committee meets in 2021.  Hurricane Dorian, which made landfall in the Bahamas as a Category 5 hurricane, tops the list of possibilities.   It devastated the Bahamas, brought tropical storm conditions to the east coast of Florida, and impacted cruises resulting in one of the largest industry relief responses in its aftermath.

Tropical Storm Imelda never reached hurricane status but nonetheless it left its mark on Texas.  This slow moving storm dumped more than 40 inches of rain in East Texas.

Hurricane Lorenzo, another Category 5 storm, will be remembered as the easternmost Category 5 storm on record in the Atlantic.




The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth consecutive year of above-average and damaging seasons dating back to 2016. It is tied with 1969 as the fourth-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record in terms of named storms.

Looking Back at 2019

The Atlantic season produced 18 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three were “major” (Category 3, 4 or 5). NOAA’s outlook called for 10-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes, and accurately predicted the overall activity of the season.

The only other period on record that produced four consecutive above-normal seasons was 1998-2001. Also this year, five tropical cyclones formed in the Gulf of Mexico, which ties a record with 2003 and 1957 for the most storms to form in that region. Of those, three — Barry, Imelda and Nestor — made landfall in the U.S.

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season was well above average.  Read more (comprehensive coverage)

Atlantic Basin
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2019
Prediction
2019
Actual
Named Storms (NS) (12.0)10 - 1718
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)5 - 96
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)2 - 43
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0)65-140130
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive


The 2019 Pacific hurricane season was a near average season which produced nineteen named storms, though most were rather weak and short-lived. Only seven hurricanes formed, the fewest since 2010. The season had a rather slow start, with no tropical cyclones forming in the basin during the month of May for the first time since 2016, and the first time that no storms formed before the month of June since 2011.

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2019 Pacific Hurricane Season was near normal.  Read more (comprehensive coverage)

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2019
Prediction
2019
Actual
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)15 - 2219
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)8 - 137
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)4 - 84
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 75 - 14597

Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season.  According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.

Hurricane Season Dates 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.
Download the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide (PDF)

Read entire series (click here)

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.


If you live in, or plan to vacation in, an area where hurricanes are prevalent, please prepare in advance by reading our series.

Saturday, April 14, 2018

2017 Hurricane Season in Review

Four 2017 Hurricane Names Retired
Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate

3 Simultaneous Hurricanes - Katia, Irma, Jose (NOAA)
Due to the extensive damage caused in the United States and Caribbean last year, the World Meteorological Organization’s Region IV Hurricane Committee has officially retired these names. Storm names are retired if they were so deadly or destructive that the future use of the name would be insensitive - otherwise names are reused by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center on a six-year cycle. Replacement names, to be used in 2023, have also been announced.  Read more


Here's the reasoning behind the decision and what the new names will be.



The extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most destructive on record. Damage costs exceeded 250 billion dollars in the United States alone, while recovery for the worst hit Caribbean islands such as Dominica may take years. Several hundred people died, and the lives of millions were impacted.

Looking Back at 2017

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was a hyperactive and catastrophic hurricane season, featuring 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes – ranking it alongside 1936 as the fifth-most active season since records began in 1851. The season also featured both the highest total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and the highest number of major hurricanes since 2005.

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was well above average.  Read more (comprehensive coverage)

Atlantic Basin
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2017
Prediction
2017
Actual
Named Storms (NS) (12.0)11 - 1717
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)5 - 910
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)2 - 46
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0)63 - 103224

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive


The 2017 Pacific hurricane season was a moderately active Pacific hurricane season, featuring eighteen named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, though the season was significantly less active than the previous three seasons. The season saw near-average activity in terms of ACE, in stark contrast to the extremely active seasons in 2014, 2015, and 2016; and for the first time since 2012, no tropical cyclones formed in the Central Pacific basin. However, for the third year in a row, the season featured above-average activity in July, with the ACE value being the fifth highest for the month.

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2017
Prediction
2017
Actual
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)14 - 2018
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)6 - 119
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)3 - 74
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 75 - 145100

Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season.  According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.

Hurricane Season Dates 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.
Download the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide (PDF)
Watch for our 2018 Hurricane Preparedness Series.





@ChrisPappinMCC

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Sunday, May 26, 2013

NOAA 2013 Hurricane Season Predictions

Hurricane Isaac, August 28, 2012/NOAA
Predictions for 2013 Hurricane Season

We've already provided you with NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Prediction as well as Colorado State University's April Prediction for the Atlantic Basin.  NOAA has just released its predictions for the Atlantic Basin and East Pacific region.



Looking Back and Looking Ahead
Hurricane Season Approaching 
ACTIVE ATLANTIC PREDICTED

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an active season and that turned out to be the case. The image above, courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane Center (NHC), was from Hurricane Isaac which made landfall in Louisiana battering the region. It was one of the most destructive and disruptive storms of the 2012 Hurricane Season. On the 7th Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, Louisiana had another direct hit: Tale of Two Hurricanes Seven Years Apart.

Looking Back at 2012

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season was above average.   This year marks the thirteenth above-normal season since the current high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes began in 1995.

Atlantic Basin
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2012
May Prediction
2012
Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)  9-15 19
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)4-810
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) 1-3
2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 64-140 144
Note:  NOAA issued an updated prediction in August 2012:

For more details, read the complete NOAA 2012 Atlantic Seasonal Climate Summary


Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive


The 2012 Eastern Northern Pacific Hurricane Season was well above average with the number of named storms almost double the average.  Hurricanes in all categories were at the high end of the predicted ranges and also double the norm.

East Pacific
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2012
May Prediction
2012
Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 12 - 18 17
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)5 - 910
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)  2 - 5
4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)  70 - 130  


For more details, read the complete NOAA 2012 Eastern Pacific Seasonal Climate Summary 


Looking Ahead to 2013





As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post,  CSU 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction, for their 2013 predictions.

Atlantic Basin


Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2013
Prediction
CSU 2013
Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (12.0)  12-18 18
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)6-109
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)  3-6 5
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0)  105 - 200 165


NOAA’s 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with the possibility that the season could be very active. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2013
Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 11 - 16
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)5 - 8
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)  1 -4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)  60 -105



NOAA’s 2013 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above normal season. 

Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season.  According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.
 

Hurricane Season Dates 
Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.

Download the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide (PDF) 

 
 

This article starts our 2013 Hurricane Preparedness Series
Be Sure To Visit All Week for More Articles


Saturday, December 1, 2012

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review


2012 hurricane season animation.
Download here. (Credit: NOAA.)
2012 Atlantic 
Hurricane Season
Above Average

November 30 marks the end of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season, one that produced 19 named storms, of which 10 became hurricanes and one became a major hurricane. The number of named storms is well above the average of 12. The number of hurricanes is also above the average of six, but the number of major hurricanes is below the average of three.

Disrupted Cruises

Hurricane Isaac and Superstorm Sandy were the most disruptive to the travel industry causing flight cancellations and altering the courses and even cancelling cruises.  Typically one expects itinerary changes during hurricane season, but usually the ships are able to sail to more peaceful waters away from the approaching storm.

In the case of Superstorm Sandy, which was a hurricane on steroids,  ports were closed preventing people from getting to the pier and ships from getting back to the port, thus cancelling the cruise completly.

Cruise lines take the safety of passengers, crew, and ships very seriously, so decisions that were made, to alter courses or even cancel the cruises, were done in the interest of safety.

Mid-Atlantic & Northeast Hit Hard

According to a press release issued by NOAA, This season marks the second consecutive year that the mid-Atlantic and Northeast suffered devastating impacts from a named storm. Sandy, and Irene last year, caused fatalities, injuries, and tremendous destruction from coastal storm surge, heavy rainfall, inland flooding, and wind. Storms struck many parts of the country this year, including tropical storms Beryl and Debby in Florida, Hurricane Isaac in Louisiana, and Post-tropical Cyclone Sandy in New Jersey.

“This year proved that it’s wrong to think that only major hurricanes can ruin lives and impact local economies,” said Laura Furgione, acting director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “We are hopeful that after the 2012 hurricane season, more families and businesses all along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts become more “weather ready” by understanding the risks associated with living near the coastline.  Each storm carries a unique set of threats that can be deadly and destructive. Mother Nature reminded us again this year of how important it is to be prepared and vigilant.”

Early Start but Ends on Time

The Atlantic Hurricane Season got off to an early start with two named storms, Alberto and Beryl, developing prior to the June 1st official start.   The season ended prior to November 30th with Sandy impacting the East Coast of the United States.

Read More:  Busy 2012 hurricane season continues decades-long high activity era in the Atlantic (NOAA)
 
Season in Review

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME                DATES         MAX WIND (MPH)
---------------------------------------------------
TS ALBERTO          19-22 MAY         60
TS BERYL            26-30 MAY         70
H  CHRIS            19-22 JUN         75
TS DEBBY            23-27 JUN         60
H  ERNESTO           1-10 AUG         85
TS FLORENCE*          3-6 AUG         60
H  GORDON           15-20 AUG        110
TS HELENE            9-18 AUG         45
H  ISAAC         21 AUG-1 SEP         80
TS JOYCE            22-24 AUG         40
H  KIRK          28 AUG-2 SEP        105
H  LESLIE       30 AUG-11 SEP         75
MH MICHAEL           3-11 SEP        115
H  NADINE        11 SEP-4 OCT         90 
TS OSCAR              3-5 OCT         50
TS PATTY            11-13 OCT         45
H  RAFAEL           12-17 OCT         90
H  SANDY            22-29 OCT        110
TS TONY             22-25 OCT         50

Thursday, May 24, 2012

NOAA 2012 Hurricane Season Predictions

NOAA predicts a Near-normal 2012 Atlantic & Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

  NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its annual Spring Hurricane predictions today. 


Atlantic: Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season.


Eastern Pacific: Climate conditions point to a near-normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 30 percent probability of a below-normal season and a 20 percent probability of an above-normal season.


Looking Back and Looking Ahead
Hurricane Season Approaching 


In the image above, courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Irene made landfall at approximately 7:30 am EDT on Aug. 27, 2011, near Cape Lookout, N.C. with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (Category 1). This NOAA GOES-13 satellite image captures Irene’s landfall moment.
This was the scariest  moment during the 2011 Hurricane Season.   NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an active season, but as Warnings Issued for Hurricane Irene, it was also the finest hour for NOAA's NHC as they had accurately predicted the path of the storm four days earlier.

Looking Back at 2011

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season was above average, with 2011 ranking as the 14th busiest season since 1966.
Atlantic Basin


Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2011
Prediction
2011
Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)  12-18 19
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)6-107
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)  3-6 4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)  105 - 200 138

For more details, read the complete NOAA 2011 Atlantic Seasonal Climate Summary

The 2011 Eastern Northern Pacific Hurricane Season was well above average. Despite predictions of a near-normal season, there were eleven named storms, ten hurricanes and six major hurricanes, all of which were above-average.

East Pacific



Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2011
Prediction
2011
Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 9 - 15 11
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)5 - 810
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)  1 - 3 6
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)  45 - 105 118


For more details, read the complete NOAA 2011 Eastern Pacific Seasonal Climate Summary
 

Looking Ahead to 2012


As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in  April and NOAA releases its predictions in late May.  See our blog post,  Below Average 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction, for CSU's 2012 predictions.  They discontinued their December predictions due to previous inaccuracies.
Atlantic Basin



Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2011
Prediction
CSU 2011
Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 9 - 15 10
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)4 - 84
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) 1 - 3 2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)  65 - 140 70


East Pacific


Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2011
Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 9 - 15
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)5 - 8
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)  1 - 3
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)  45 -105


Based on these early season predictions, and despite the early jump start on the Hurricane Season, this year should be near-normal.   Of course, that doesn't imply that we should be complacent.  It only takes one major hurricane making landfall to cause significant loss of life and property.


Additional References





Wednesday, November 30, 2011

2011 Hurricane Season in Review


2011 Hurricane Season 
In Review


The 2011 Hurricane Season for the Atlantic and East Pacific Basins officially ends today.  NOAA's predictions turn out to be very accurate once again.

Active Atlantic (Above Average)

In the Atlantic, there were a total of 19 named storms, the third highest since 1851, from which 7 became hurricanes.  Of those, 3 were major hurricanes.   Irene was the lone hurricane to hit the United States in 2011, and the first one to do so since Ike struck southeast Texas in 2008. Irene was also the most significant tropical cyclone to strike the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.


Atlantic Basin



Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2011
Prediction
2011
Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)  12-18 19
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)6-107
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)  3-6 3


East Pacific (Above Average Hurricanes)

The East Pacific was less active than the Atlantic as predicted with a total of 11 named storms, well within the predicted range, from which 10 became hurricanes with 6 becoming major hurricanes.  The number and strength of the hurricanes was higher than predicted.


East Pacific


Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2011
Prediction
2011
Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)  9-15 11
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)5-810
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) 1-3 6


Keeping a Watchful Eye

As we have in past years, we monitored the major storms and published updated information on the impact of the tropical weather in both the Atlantic and Pacific regions.  We introduced a new static page,  Hurricane Zone, which served as an index to all the active storms with three storms being active simultaneously at the peak of the season.  The static page also is a clearing house for past information about hurricane seasons as well as predictions and preparedness information from past and present seasons. 

Cruise lines monitored all the storms and altered itineraries on several occasions.   By far the most disruptive storm was Irene since it lingered up the East Coast of the United States and made landfall.  No storms in the Pacific made landfall this year.



Looking for past or current hurricanes?  Click Image or Here


The 2011 Hurricane Season in 4.5 minutes 
(courtesy of NOAA)

We welcome your feedback about the format used for Hurricane Zone and the individual blog posts. Our intention is to keep our readers updated as best we can on the progress and impact of the tropical storms. We include links which can provide up-to-the-minute updates directly from the NHC, cruise lines, and other sources which can be used between updates.

“Although the 2011 hurricane season has ended, our need to prepare for disasters hasn't,” said Craig Fugate, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. “Being prepared for all kinds of hazards, from hurricanes to blizzards to tornadoes, is a year-round activity. We encourage all members of the team, especially the public, to continue to prepare for emergencies by staying informed of forecasted weather events, making an emergency plan, and building your emergency preparedness kit. Visit Ready.gov to learn more.”

NOAA will issue its initial outlook for the 2012 hurricane season in May just prior to the official start of the season on June 1.  We will start our coverage with the 2012 Hurricane Preparedness Week.