Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Get a Plan

Click on this interactive image to learn more about being prepared for Hurricanes and other Disasters

NOW is the TIME to PREPARE

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here

Above Normal: Atlantic      

Below Normal: Central & Eastern Pacific

An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. See Related Blog Posts section below for links to NOAA outlooks for each region as well as hurricane preparedness information.

“With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator. “As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline. Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall.”

The president recently designated May 26 - June 1, 2013 as National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA and FEMA encourage those living in hurricane-prone states to use this time to review their overall preparedness. More information on individual and family preparedness can be found at www.Ready.gov and www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.

"Preventing the loss of life and minimizing the damage to property from hurricanes are responsibilities that are shared by all"

"FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we're prepared for hurricane season," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it's important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can't control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you're ready."

Your family may not be together when a disaster strikes so it is important to plan in advance: how you will get to a safe place; how you will contact one another; how you will get back together; and what you will do in different situations. Read more about Family Communication during an emergency.

Ready.gov has made it simple for you to make a family emergency plan. Download the Family Emergency Plan (FEP) (PDF - 750 Kb) and fill out the sections before printing it or emailing it to your family and friends.

Disaster Prevention should include:

• Developing a Family Plan
  
•  Creating a Disaster Supply Kit
•  Having a Place to Go
•  Securing your Home
•  Having a Pet Plan

Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide (pdf) - Spanish Version (pdf)

"How To" guides for protecting your property from flooding & high winds. (FEMA)

Be Red Cross Ready Are you Red Cross Ready? Click here to launch an interactive module with pictures, audio and video content. More on what to do before, during and after a hurricane can be found at: redcross.org/prepare/disaster/hurricane. An infographic on the survey findings can be viewed here.

Related Links

NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season
Colorado State University
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
NOAA/ National Weather Service
WMO Severe Weather Info Centre
National Hurricane Center (NHC)
NWS Regional Offices and Centers
Hurricane Preparedness


More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.

Related Blog Posts

• Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Forecast Process
• Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Inland Flooding
• Hurricane Hunters Not a Job for the Faint of Heart
• Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Winds
• Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Storm Surge
• NOAA 2013 Hurricane Season Predictions
• Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Basics & History
• NOAA Expects Below-normal Central Pacific Hurricane Season
• 2013 National Hurricane Preparedness Week
• Travel With Protection Against Unexpected 
• Weather

Hurricane Preparedness Week:   May 26 - June 1, 2013

Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Forecast Process

Hurricane Forecast Process

Fifth In the 2013 Series

Hurricane Preparedness Week playlist on YouTube

Forecast Process
We continue our coverage of the 2013 Hurricane Preparedness Week by looking at the tropical weather forecasting process.

6 Hour Forecast Cycle When a storm threatens the following occurs 0:00 A new hurricane forecast cycle begins. 0:45 Receive the location of the center of the hurricane. 1:00 Initialize or start thehurricane models with the storm's location and intensity 1:20 Receive model guidance and prepare a new hurricane forecast. 2:00 Coordinate with National Weather Service and Dept. of Defense. 3:00 Issue the full hurricane advisory package. ISSUANCE TIME: 5am EDT (4 CDT) 11am EDT (10 CDT) 5pm EDT (4 CDT) 11pm EDT (10 CDT) 3:15 Participate in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) conference call with the affected states. 6:00 A new hurricane forecast cycle begins. ** When a Watch or a Warning is issued, intermediate advisories are initiated. MORE INFO ON FORECAST PRODUCTS Source:  NHC: Forecast Process (Learn More)

Part of the mission of the National Weather Service (NWS) Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) is to save lives and protect property by issuing watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous weather conditions in the tropics. This section provides information about the roles of those responsible for providing hurricane information to emergency managers and decision makers. The TPC is comprised of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), and the Technical Support Branch (TSB). During hurricane season, the latter two provide support to the NHC. The local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in hurricane-prone areas are also important participants in the forecast process. OBSERVATION Observations including satellites, buoys, reconnaissance aircraft, and radar are the basis for all forecast and warning products issued by the NHC. Quality, quantity, and timeliness of remote sensing observations are critical for accurate and timely forecasts and warnings. ANALYSIS The various observations are checked for quality, analyzed, and put into a suite of computer models.  MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTERPRETATION The computer models take in the observations and perform millions of calculations to generate predictions of hurricane behavior and the general conditions of the atmosphere in which the hurricane is embedded. The model results are packaged as guidance for the appropriate national centers and local offices and for evaluation and use in the NWS's forecast and warning process. COORDINATION WITHIN THE NWS Forecasts and warnings are coordinated between the national centers and local forecast offices to provide consistency, which is critical during severe weather episodes.

How Are the Cruise Ship News Stories Impacting Your Plans

VOTE THIS POLL

Cruise Line Cancels Remainder of Cruise ...

Fire Onboard ....

Generator Failed ...

Propulsion Problem ...



These are some of the headlines from this year that have been making the news.  In some cases, several of the stories were from one cruise line (I'm certain you know which one - we don't want to inflict any more pain on their management, employees, or loyal cruisers).

Just today there is news about a UK based cruise line, Voyages of Discovery, who has had to cut their current nine-day Celtic Treasures cruise short due to generator problems.   They were docked in
Killybegs, Ireland when two of their four generators starting having technical problems.   Technicians have been unable to resolve the problem so the line has terminated the cruise there and will fly guests to the disembarkation port of Portsmouth.

Fortunately, in this most recent generator issue, there was no loss of complete power as the two remaining generators could run all the ships functions, however, that would be insufficient to sail.

What Do You Think? 

For us, these news stories don't change any plans that we have for future cruises.  The way we look at it: much like other mechanical items such as cars and planes,  ships can have parts fail and they will do so at the most inopportune time.  There is only so much that can be done to prevent it from happening.

How many airline flights a day are cancelled due to weather or mechanical issues?   They usually don't make the news unless there's some huge number of cancellations, perhaps due to a storm or computer glitch.

Both the airlines and cruise lines are in the business of making money, and moving passengers is the only time when that is possible.  Therefore, it is in their best interest to have their fleets working.   Both sub industries have to adhere to safety and maintenance rules and are under regular review.

The news media does have a flare for hyping certain types of stories.  They do so to increase their following which pays their bills.  

Do the stories have an impact on your vacation plans?  

In the left-hand margin of our blog, we've created a poll to allow you to share your feelings.   We'll run it for several days so that you have an opportunity to vote.   If you have comments, you can share them here or on our Facebook Page.

Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Inland Flooding

Hurricane Inland Flooding

Fourth In the 2013 Series

Hurricane Preparedness Week playlist on YouTube

Looking for current storms?  Click Image or Here

Inland Flooding
We continue our coverage of the 2013 Hurricane Preparedness Week by looking at another of the hurricane hazards.  In particular, we'll look at Inland Flooding.

Stop and think about that for a minute and you'll agree that the force of rushing, rising, water can do extensive damage in a very short period of time.    For those that ignore evacuation suggestions, they could quickly be cut off from safety.  Inland flooding can be a major threat to communities hundreds of miles from the coast as intense rain falls from these huge tropical air masses. 

Most of these fatalities occur because people underestimate the power of moving water. It isn't necessarily the strongest storm that has the greatest potential for flooding.  Often the weaker, slow moving storm can cause more damage due to flooding than a fast moving severe tropical storm.

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes: Hurricanes pack a triple punch: high winds, soaking rain, and flying debris. They can cause storm surges to coastal areas, as well as create heavy rainfall which in turn causes flooding hundreds of miles inland. While all coastal areas are at risk, certain cities are particularly vulnerable and could have losses similar to or even greater than those caused by the 2005 hurricane, Katrina, in New Orleans and Mississippi.

When hurricanes weaken into tropical storms, they generate rainfall and flooding that can be especially damaging since the rain collects in one place. In 2001, Tropical Storm Allison produced more than 30 inches of rainfall in Houston in just a few days, flooding over 70,000 houses and destroying 2,744 homes.
 
Federal And National Resources 

Find additional information on how to plan and prepare for floods, what to do during and after a flood and learn about available resources by visiting the following:

• Federal Emergency Management Agency
• NOAA Watch
• American Red Cross
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Center for Disease Control
• USA Freedom Corps Website
• www.FloodSmart.gov

Hurricane Hunters Not a Job for the Faint of Heart

It's True - They Fly Right into the Eye of a Hurricane

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, known as the Hurricane Hunters of the Air Force Reserve, is one-of-a-kind: the only Department of Defense organization still flying into tropical storms and hurricanes--since 1944.  

The primary mission of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (53rd WRS) is to conduct tropical storm reconnaissance.   Tropical reconnaissance is governed by the National Hurricane Operations Plan. This plan specifics that the 53rd WRS will support 24 hour a day continuous operations and have the ability to fly up to 3 storms at a time with a response time of 16 hours.  Learn more about The Mission


As you can see in the video, it takes special people and equipment to complete these very critical missions.

There are five different flying jobs at the Hurricane Hunters. ALL jobs are part of the Air Force Reserve. Half of the positions are part-time (traditional reservists), and half are full-time (Air Reserve Technicians).  Learn more about The People   Want to know how to become a Hurricane Hunter? Find out here!

Cyberflight into the Eye of a Hurricane

Join Us for a Virtual Storm Flight

You're just in time... head across the hall to our auditorium, and join the crew for the pre-mission briefing.

Briefing

Second Tropical Storm of East Pacific Probable

Eastern Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2013 National Hurricane Preparedness Week

NOTE:  Throughout the Hurricane Season, which officially goes from June 1 - November 30,  we post information about the storms and their impact on land and cruises.   There is a graphic below, Hurricane Zone, which has links to current and past storms as well as predictions, preparations, and other useful planning information.    We'll typically have one "anchor" post for each storm.  In some cases, there may be more than one post, for example when there are multiple storms occurring in the region at the same time. We are always looking for ways to improve our service to you in this regard, so if you have suggestions, please send them our way.

Tropical Depression TWO-E 

BecameTropical Storm Barbara 
Hurricane Category 1 Approaching Mexico

Tropical Storm Barbara - Graphics Archive   Storm Archive   

NHC issuing advisories on TD BARBARA

The second named storm of the 2013 East Pacific Hurricane Season has formed off the coast of Southern Mexico.  As the storm approaches the coast of Mexico, it has strengthened into a Category 1 Hurricane, the first for the season.

800 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

...BARBARA NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO BUT VERY ILL DEFINED...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES... 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BARBARA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A
DAY OR SO.

 SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 95.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
BRINGING STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

10 AM Eastern 28 May 2013

While NOAA's East Pacific prediction is for a less active season, the second named storm appears to be imminent. There is currently a 90% chance that the low pressure system, which is producing thunderstorms about 190 miles south of Salina Cruz, Mexico, will become a tropical depression or tropical storm today.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...

HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENTLY STRONG 
ONSHORE FLOW MEETING THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD 
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NHC ACTIVE STORMS (CLICK HERE)

Real-Time Cruise Ship Tracking

 

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANES (CLICK HERE)

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here

Historical Data: 

200 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...

500 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...

1100 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO...
 

200 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...PROLONGED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS ANTICIPATED...

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Winds

Hurricane High Winds & Tornadoes

Third In the 2013 Series

Hurricane Preparedness Week playlist on YouTube

High Winds from Hurricanes

We continue our coverage of the 2013 Hurricane Preparedness Week by looking at two more of the hurricane hazards.  In particular, we'll look at High Wind and Tornadoes.

Cat.	Speed (mph)
1	74-95
2	96-110
3	111-129
4	130-156
5	>157

The intensity of a landfalling hurricane is expressed in terms of categories that relate wind speeds and potential damage. According to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, a Category 1 hurricane has lighter winds compared to storms in higher categories. A Category 4 hurricane would have winds between 131 and 155 mph and, on the average, would usually be expected to cause 100 times the damage of the Category 1 storm.

Depending on circumstances, less intense storms may still be strong enough to produce damage, particularly in areas that have not prepared in advance.  A summary chart is shown here. More details were covered in Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Basics & History.

RELATED INFORMATION

• HIGH WIND SAFETY ACTIONS
• SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE (updated  2012)
• HURRICANE WIND DECAY
• HISTORIC HIGH WIND EVENTS
• RISK AREAS

Tornadoes 

A tornado is a dark funnel-shaped cloud made up of violently rotating winds that can reach speeds of up to 300 m.p.h. The diameter of a tornado can vary between a few feet and a mile, and its track can extend from less than a mile to several hundred miles. Tornadoes can occur any time, with many occurring in spring or early summer.

Hurricanes can also produce tornadoes that add to the storm's destructive power. Tornadoes are most likely to occur in the right-front quadrant of the hurricane. However, they are also often found elsewhere embedded in the rainbands, well away from the center of the hurricane.

Tornado Facts

• When associated with hurricanes, tornadoes are not usually accompanied by hail or a lot of lightning, clues that citizens in other parts of the country watch for.
• Tornado production can occur for days after landfall when the tropical cyclone remnants maintain an identifiable low pressure circulation.
• They can also develop at any time of the day or night during landfall. However, by 12 hours after landfall, tornadoes tend to occur mainly during daytime hours.

The Fujita Scale

F-Scale Number	Intensity Phrase	Wind Speed	Type of Damage Done
F0	Gale tornado	40-72 mph	Some damage to chimneys; breaks branches off trees; pushes over shallow-rooted trees; damages sign boards.
F1	Moderate tornado	73-112 mph	The lower limit is the beginning of hurricane wind speed; peels surface off roofs; mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned; moving autos pushed off the roads; attached garages may be destroyed.
F2	Significant tornado	113-157 mph	Considerable damage. Roofs torn off frame houses; mobile homes demolished; boxcars pushed over; large trees snapped or uprooted; light object missiles generated.
F3	Severe tornado	158-206 mph	Roof and some walls torn off well constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in fores uprooted
F4	Devastating tornado	207-260 mph	Well-constructed houses leveled; structures with weak foundations blown off some distance; cars thrown and large missiles generated.
F5	Incredible tornado	261-318 mph	Strong frame houses lifted off foundations and carried considerable distances to disintegrate; automobile sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters; trees debarked; steel re-inforced concrete structures badly damaged.
F6	Inconceivable tornado	319-379 mph	These winds are very unlikely. The small area of damage they might produce would probably not be recognizable along with the mess produced by F4 and F5 wind that would surround the F6 winds. Missiles, such as cars and refrigerators would do serious secondary damage that could not be directly identified as F6 damage. If this level is ever achieved, evidence for it might only be found in some manner of ground swirl pattern, for it may never be identifiable through engineering studies

Fire Onboard Grandeur of the Seas

Grandeur of the Seas Fire     Courtesy Royal Caribbean

Current Cruise Terminated

Cruises Cancelled

Early Memorial Day morning, a fire broke out onboard Royal Caribbean Grandeur of the Seas while it was sailing in the Bahamas.  The fire caused extensive damage to the aft mooring deck of the ship as you can see in this image courtesy of Royal Caribbean.

Fortunately, no one was seriously injured in the incident and the ship was diverted to Freeport in the Bahamas.   Passengers were awakened and instructed to go to their muster stations.   The fire broke around just before 3 AM and was completely extinguished around 5 AM.

Grandeur of the Seas was just refurbished last year.  You may recall that we were onboard the ship for a special Revitalization Debut last November  (search Grandeur of the Seas for articles)

We will continue to monitor this story and report any further developments.  

AP Image of Grandeur Of the Seas in Freeport after fire (click here) shows the extent of the damage.

Grandeur of the Seas Update May 29, 2013, 5:00 p.m.

Click this link for ongoing updates from Royal Caribbean

On Monday, May 27, Grandeur of the Seas experienced a fire in the mooring area in the aft of the ship. Unfortunately, due to the time needed to repair the damage caused by the fire, it is necessary to cancel Grandeur of the Seas' next six sailings. The ship is expected to return to service with the July 12 sailing. Grandeur of the Seas' cancelled sailings include: June 7, 2013 June 14 2013 June 21, 2013 June 28, 2013 July 5, 2013 We are deeply sorry for this unexpected development in our guests’ upcoming vacation. Royal Caribbean International will provide affected guests with a full refund of their voyage. For their convenience, all monies paid will automatically be processed back to the original form of payment within the next three weeks. Guests who are ready to rebook onto a future sailing, and prefer to reapply the funds prior to the refund process being completed, should do so prior to June 12. For guests or travel agents rebooking by June 12, please contact us at 888-824-0012. Otherwise, you may book at your convenience. Royal Caribbean International will also provide these guests with a future cruise certificate for 25% of the cruise fare paid. This certificate may be used for a future cruise on Royal Caribbean International. Guests that have booked with a travel professional should contact their original travel agent with any general questions related to the cancelled sailings. Guests who have booked directly with Royal Caribbean should contact us at 888-824-0012.

May 27, 2013, 8:00 p.m. EST

Grandeur of the Seas – Current Sailing Unfortunately, the damage caused by the fire on Grandeur of the Seas will require us to cancel the rest of the current sailing. We are currently working on making the necessary arrangements to return all guests to Baltimore, Maryland, tomorrow. Royal Caribbean International is deeply sorry for this unexpected development in our guests’ vacation. We understand that this may have been a very stressful time for them. And we also know that it has significantly impacted their vacation experience. We appreciate their patience and cooperation in dealing with this unfortunate situation. Grandeur of the Seas – May 31, 2013 Sailing Unfortunately, due to the time needed to repair the damage caused by the fire, it is necessary to cancel Grandeur of the Seas’ next voyage, which was scheduled to depart Baltimore, Maryland, on Friday, May 31. We are deeply sorry for this unexpected development in our guests’ upcoming vacation. A dedicated telephone hotline has been established for guests on these two sailings. Guests may call us at 1-888-824-0012 in the U.S. or +1-408-916-9000 internationally. We continue to assess the situation onboard Grandeur of the Seas and gather the necessary information in order to make a decision regarding future sailings. We encourage guests on future sailings of Grandeur of the Seas to monitor this website or our Twitter handle @RoyalCaribbean for an update on your voyage.

U.S. Coast Guard Response 

According the the USCG website:   The Coast Guard responded early Monday morning to a fire aboard the 917-foot cruise ship, Royal Caribbean Grandeur of the Seas, 35 nautical miles northwest of West End, Bahamas. At approximately 3 a.m., Coast Guard Sector Miami received a report of a fire aboard a Bahamian-flagged cruise ship carrying 2,224 passengers and 796 crew en route to CoCoCay, Bahamas.

The fire began on the third deck of the aft mooring area of the ship and spread to the fourth deck crew lounge area. Around 5 a.m., the fire was reported to have been extinguished by the ship’s fire response crew.

Coast Guard Sector Miami issued an Urgent Marine Information Broadcast (UMIB) and diverted the Coast Guard Cutter Cormorant, the Coast Guard Cutter Sitkinak, and the Coast Guard Cutter Robert Yered to respond to the emergency. The Coast Guard also launched a Coast Guard Air Station Miami HC-144 Ocean Sentry aircraft and a Coast Guard Air Station Clearwater MH-60 Jayhawk to respond.

The cruise ship Carnival Sensation and a motor vessel from the Automated Mutual-Assistance Vessel Rescue (AMVER), the Hagen, also diverted to stand by and assist if needed.

 The U.S. Coast Guard and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) are joining the flag state to begin conducting a joint investigation of the vessel to determine the cause of the fire.

Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Storm Surge

Hurricane Storm Surge

Second In the 2013 Series
2013 National Hurricane Preparedness Week

Hurricane Preparedness Week playlist on YouTube

Storm Surge Hazard

We continue our coverage of the 2013 Hurricane Preparedness Week by looking at some of the hurricane hazards.  In particular, we'll start by examining the greatest potential for loss of life related to a hurricane, the storm surge.

Simply put, it is a dome of water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm.  The advancing water, combined with the normal tides, can increase the mean water level by 15 feet or more.  The threat is increased if it combines with high tide.  Along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States, the mean sea level is around 10 feet, so a storm surge above that level could cause catastrophic damage.

The Many Factors that Influence Storm Surge

• Central Pressure
• Storm Intensity
• Storm Forward Speed
• Size
• Angle of Approach to Coast
• Shape of the Coastline
• Width and Slope of Ocean Bottom
• Local Features

Download INTRODUCTION TO STORM SURGE (PDF) for more background information about storm surges and consult the following links for animations and other useful information. Be sure to watch the PSA video below as well.  

  RELATED INFORMATION

• Storm Surge Overview
• Notable Storm Surge Events
• Storm Surge Risk Map for U.S. Coast
• Storm Surge Vulnerability Facts
• Coastal Inundation Toolkit

Hurricane track forecasting continues to improve, but the the average track error 48 hours prior to landfall for the Atlantic basin is still considerable.  The 24-hour to 48-hour window is often critical for decision-making. It is important not to focus solely on one storm surge product within this window. Storm specific uncertainties are accounted for in the probabilistic storm surge (p-surge) product, while the *MOMs and *MEOWs provide a worst case storm surge estimate at a regional level.  More





For those in danger areas, it is wise to plan in advance of hurricane season.   Be sure you know areas that would be safe when a storm approaches.   You should be able to get to these safe zones quickly so that you don't risk being trapped by road congestion.

Hurricanes usually provide advance warning.  When local officials recommend evacuation, heed their warnings and put your plan into action.   Structures can be replaced, but lives cannot.

We'll continue our Hurricane Preparedness Week coverage by looking at additional hazards next.   Consult the NHC and other websites for additional information about storm surges.

Memorial Day 2013

Saluting Those That Have Served Their Country

Especially Those Who Have Given The Ultimate Sacrifice

Over the years we have been to many military cemeteries, museums, and other sites during our cruise vacations.   One of our most memorable trips was when we visited Normandy, France during a British Isles cruise.  My father had been among the troops landing at the beaches of Normandy on D-Day. He lived through that day and many other horrific days during the war.  Many of his fellow soldiers weren't as fortunate.  He returned to Normandy years later and stood on this hallowed ground.   He wept for his Lieutenant and comrades as he found their graves.

Gone But Not Forgotten

It is fitting that there is a day set aside to honor the war dead.   However, I suggest that we should remember them, and those that lived through the war and have now returned to their heavenly homes, at other times, not just Memorial Day.    

The generation that fought in the two World Wars are quickly slipping away.  My father and his brother, who both fought in the war, are gone now.   They would rarely speak of that time in their lives.   When we were in Normandy, we were fortunate to have a knowledgeable private guide who took us to all the historic sights and was able to show us what it was like then and now.  Without men like that, we might not hear the stories any longer.

If you are fortunate enough to have a living relative who fought in the war,  and if they are willing to talk about it, find out more about that time in their lives.   I suspect they won't want to talk about it.  If they are still able to travel, they may want to go back to Normandy for a final visit like my father did on an anniversary of D-Day.   He went to the very beach that he had landed on so many years ago.  

Of course there are other wars, not just the world ones where we salute the men and women that gave their lives and those that didn't but had their lives changed forever.   Let's not forget them either and be sure to thank them for what they did.

The cruise lines thank the military as well.   There are discounts year-round and often specials around this time of year.  We would be honored to help you plan a trip, land or sea, to the battlefields of Europe or any other destination.

Thank You to All the Military for Your Service 

NOAA 2013 Hurricane Season Predictions

Hurricane Isaac, August 28, 2012/NOAA

Predictions for 2013 Hurricane Season

We've already provided you with NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Prediction as well as Colorado State University's April Prediction for the Atlantic Basin.  NOAA has just released its predictions for the Atlantic Basin and East Pacific region.

NOAA Expects Below-normal Central Pacific Hurricane Season 

CSU 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction 

Looking Back and Looking Ahead

Hurricane Season Approaching 

Looking for past & current hurricanes?  Click Image or Here

ACTIVE ATLANTIC PREDICTED

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an active season and that turned out to be the case. The image above, courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane Center (NHC), was from Hurricane Isaac which made landfall in Louisiana battering the region. It was one of the most destructive and disruptive storms of the 2012 Hurricane Season. On the 7th Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, Louisiana had another direct hit: Tale of Two Hurricanes Seven Years Apart.

Looking Back at 2012

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season was above average.   This year marks the thirteenth above-normal season since the current high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes began in 1995.

Atlantic Basin

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2012 May Prediction	2012 Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	9-15	19
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	4-8	10
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	1-3	2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	64-140	144

Note:  NOAA issued an updated prediction in August 2012:

 Hurricane Predictions for Remainder of Atlantic Season

For more details, read the complete NOAA 2012 Atlantic Seasonal Climate Summary

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive

The 2012 Eastern Northern Pacific Hurricane Season was well above average with the number of named storms almost double the average.  Hurricanes in all categories were at the high end of the predicted ranges and also double the norm.

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2012 May Prediction	2012 Actual Results
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	12 - 18	17
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	5 - 9	10
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	2 - 5	4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	70 - 130

For more details, read the complete NOAA 2012 Eastern Pacific Seasonal Climate Summary 

Looking Ahead to 2013

As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post,  CSU 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction, for their 2013 predictions.

Atlantic Basin

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2013 Prediction	CSU 2013 Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (12.0)	12-18	18
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)	6-10	9
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)	3-6	5
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0)	105 - 200	165

NOAA’s 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with the possibility that the season could be very active. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2013 Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	11 - 16
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	5 - 8
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	1 -4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	60 -105

NOAA’s 2013 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above normal season. 

Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season.  According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.

 

Hurricane Season Dates 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.

Download the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide (PDF) 

 
 

This article starts our 2013 Hurricane Preparedness Series

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