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| Hurricane Isaac, August 28, 2012/NOAA |
Predictions for 2013 Hurricane Season
We've already provided you with NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Prediction as well as Colorado State University's April Prediction for the Atlantic Basin. NOAA has just released its predictions for the Atlantic Basin and East Pacific region.
Looking Back and Looking Ahead
Hurricane Season Approaching
ACTIVE ATLANTIC PREDICTED
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an active season and that turned out to be the case. The image above, courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane Center (NHC), was from Hurricane Isaac which made landfall in Louisiana battering the region. It was one of the most destructive and disruptive storms of the 2012 Hurricane Season. On the 7th Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, Louisiana had another direct hit: Tale of Two Hurricanes Seven Years Apart.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an active season and that turned out to be the case. The image above, courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane Center (NHC), was from Hurricane Isaac which made landfall in Louisiana battering the region. It was one of the most destructive and disruptive storms of the 2012 Hurricane Season. On the 7th Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, Louisiana had another direct hit: Tale of Two Hurricanes Seven Years Apart.
Looking Back at 2012
In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season was above average. This year marks the thirteenth above-normal season since the current high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes began in 1995.
Atlantic Basin
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2012 May Prediction | 2012 Actual Results |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 9-15 | 19 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 4-8 | 10 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 1-3 | 2 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 64-140 | 144 |
Note: NOAA issued an updated prediction in August 2012:
For more details, read the complete NOAA 2012 Atlantic Seasonal Climate Summary
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The 2012 Eastern Northern Pacific Hurricane Season was well above average with the number of named storms almost double the average. Hurricanes in all categories were at the high end of the predicted ranges and also double the norm.
East Pacific
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2012 May Prediction | 2012 Actual Results |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 12 - 18 | 17 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 5 - 9 | 10 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 2 - 5 | 4 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 70 - 130 | |
Looking Ahead to 2013
As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post, CSU 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction, for their 2013 predictions.
Atlantic Basin
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2013 Prediction | CSU 2013 Prediction |
| Named Storms (NS) (12.0) | 12-18 | 18 |
| Hurricanes (H) (6.5) | 6-10 | 9 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) | 3-6 | 5 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0) | 105 - 200 | 165 |
NOAA’s 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with the possibility that the season could be very active. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
East Pacific
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2013 Prediction |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 11 - 16 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 5 - 8 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 1 -4 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 60 -105 |
NOAA’s 2013 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above normal season.
Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index
An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season. According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications,
an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an
above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an
exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.
Hurricane Season Dates
Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.Download the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide (PDF)
This article starts our 2013 Hurricane Preparedness Series
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