2024 Hurricanes - How They Work

Hurricane Basics & History

Hurricane Preparedness Week playlist on YouTube

"Too many families know the pain of having their lives and livelihoods devastated by powerful hurricanes, tropical storms, and typhoons. During National Hurricane Preparedness Week, we shed light on the dangerous impacts of hurricanes and share best practices on how to prepare and stay safe. We also show our gratitude to the first responders, volunteers, and all those who help to prepare communities in advance and rescue, recover, and rebuild in the wake of their darkest moments."  President Biden

Looking for past or current hurricanes?  Click Image or Here

President Obama declared May 5 - May 11 “National Hurricane Preparedness Week." FEMA, along with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is helping to raise awareness of steps that can be taken to help protect citizens, and their communities and property. 

What is a Hurricane?

A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, which is a generic term for a low pressure system that generally forms in the tropics. The cyclone is accompanied by thunderstorms and, in the Northern Hemisphere, a counterclockwise circulation of winds near the earth's surface. Tropical cyclones are classified as follows:

* Sustained winds A 1-minute average wind measured at about 33 ft (10 meters) above the surface. ** 1 knot = 1 nautical mile per hour or 1.15 statute miles per hour. Abbreviated as "kt".

Tropical Depression
An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds* of 38 mph (33 kt**) or less

Tropical Storm
An organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)

Hurricane
An intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 kt) or higher

Familiarize yourself with the terms that are used to identify a hurricane.

• A hurricane watch means a hurricane is possible in your area. Be prepared to evacuate. Monitor local radio and television news outlets or listen to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest developments.
• A hurricane warning is when a hurricane is expected in your area. If local authorities advise you to evacuate, leave immediately.

Hurricanes are classified into five categories based on their wind speed, central pressure, and damage potential. Category Three and higher hurricanes are considered major hurricanes, though Categories One and Two are still extremely dangerous and warrant your full attention.The following chart details the categories and the damage that can result from a storm with that strength.

 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale for Kids (NASA)

Scale Number (Category)	Sustained  Winds	Damage	Storm Surge
1	74-95 mph 64-82 kt 119-153 km/h	Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.	4-5 feet
2	96-110 mph 83-95 kt 154-177 km/h	Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.	6-8 feet
3  (major)	111-129 mph 96-112 kt 178-208 km/h	Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.	9-12 feet
4 (major)	130-156 mph 113-136 kt 209-251 km/h	Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.	13-18 feet
5  (major)	157 mph or higher 137 kt or higher 252 km/h or higher	Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.	Greater than 18 feet

Hurricane History

2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Track Map (click to enlarge)

In the following article, we  look at NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season which is expected to be very active.

NOAA 2024 Hurricane Season Predictions

2024 CSU Atlantic Hurricane Prediction

NHC Data Archive

We will continue coverage of Hurricane Preparedness Week by looking at some of the hazards starting tomorrow.  Additional Hurricane information can be found in our static Hurricane Zone tab.

Read entire series (click here)

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.


If you live in, or plan to vacation in, an area where hurricanes are prevalent, please prepare in advance by reading our series.

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NOAA 2019 Hurricane Predictions

Credit NOAA (click to enlarge)

Predictions for 
2019 Hurricane Season

We've already provided you with Colorado State University's April Prediction for the Atlantic Basin.  NOAA has just released its predictions for the Atlantic Basin, Central and East Pacific regions.

• Getting ready for the Atlantic hurricane season
• Video: What You Should...and Should Not...Do with the NHC Forecast Cone ( download available here )
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season and above-normal 2019 Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific hurricane season.

Looking Back and Looking Ahead

Hurricane Season Approaching 

Looking for past & current hurricanes?  Click Image or Here

Looking Back at 2018

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season  was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging hurricane seasons, featuring 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes. The season will be best remembered for Hurricanes Florence and Michael, which caused significant damage in the Southeastern United States. 2018 was the first season since 2008 to feature four named storms active simultaneously (Florence, Helene, Isaac, and Joyce). The season also was the first on record to see seven storms that were subtropical at some point in their lifetimes (Alberto, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Joyce, Leslie, and Oscar).

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season was well above average.  For more details, read  NOAA: Destructive 2018 Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end.

Atlantic Basins

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2018 Prediction	2018 Actual
Named Storms (NS) (12.0)	10 - 16	15
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)	5 - 9	8
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)	1 - 4	2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0)	63 - 145	133

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive

The 2018 Pacific hurricane season produced the highest accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value on record. With 23 named storms, it was the fourth-most active season on record, tied with 1982.

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2018 Prediction	2018 Actual
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	14 - 20	23
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	7- 12	13
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	3 - 7	10
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	80 - 160	202

Looking Ahead to 2018

As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post,  2019 CSU Atlantic Hurricane Prediction, for their 2019 predictions.

click to enlarge

Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Name (click link)

Atlantic Basin

Forecasters predict a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30.

NOAA’s forecasters predict a 70-percent likelihood of 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

East Pacific

An 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season is predicted for both the eastern and central Pacific regions. The eastern Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 14 to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 12 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 major hurricanes.

Central Pacific

The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

ACE - Atlantic / Pacific

click images to enlarge

An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season.  According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.

Hurricane Season Dates 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.
Make a Plan (FEMA) 

Read entire series (click here)

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.


If you live in, or plan to vacation in, an area where hurricanes are prevalent, please prepare in advance by reading our series.

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2019 CSU Atlantic Hurricane Prediction

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

Forecasters at the Colorado State University are predicting that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below-normal activity. The season begins June 1st and continues through November 30th.

Their current (April 4^th) forecast predicts a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

It is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April.

As is customary, NOAA made their first prediction at the end of May. So, why does Colorado State University's team of scientists create this forecast? Mainly because the public is curious about predictions based on the current global oceanic and atmospheric conditions. The forecasting team created their predictions using a statistical model based on 29 years worth of data.  This is the 36th year in which the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has made forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity.

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here

According to CSU scientists, "The current weak El Niño event appears likely to maintain intensity or perhaps even strengthen during the summer/fall. The tropical Atlantic is slightly cooler than normal, while the subtropical Atlantic is quite warm, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. The anomalously cold sea surface temperatures in the far North Atlantic lead us to believe that the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation is in its negative phase. There is considerable uncertainty as to what the configuration of Atlantic sea surface temperatures will look like for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season."

Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.

The April forecast calls for 13 named tropical storms with 5  strengthening to hurricane status. Of those hurricanes, 2 are predicted to be a major hurricane (Category 3,4, or 5).

The team forecasts a 48% chance of one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline (compared to 52% for last century), 28% for U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (average for last century is 31%), 28% for Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for last century is 30%) and a 39% chance for the Caribbean (compared to 42% average for last century).

More reading: Current and Past Forecasts

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL 

HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019

Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Median (in parentheses)	Issue Date   4 April 2019
Named Storms (NS) (12.1)	13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (59.4)	50
Hurricanes (H) (6.4)	5
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.2)	16
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7)	2
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (6.2)	4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (106)	80
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (116%)	90

Another reason why Colorado State University publishes forecasts is for hurricane preparedness.   We too are publishing this information, along with updates throughout hurricane season, to help protect life and property when danger approaches.

As I've said many times,  the cruise line industry has safety of passengers, crew, and vessels as their number one priority.   The cruise lines work closely with the NHC and other agencies to monitor all sorts of weather conditions, including tropical storms.   The ships may alter courses and cancel ports of call in order to maintain the level of safety for all onboard.  We will keep you posted about any known itinerary changes during hurricane season.   Should your cruise itinerary change due to a tropical storm, don't be upset, but rather thank the Captain and crew for taking you out of harm's way.  Read our blog post 4 Things To Help Plan Vacation in Hurricane Season...

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.  We will feature several articles during Hurricane Preparedness week once again.   Until then, you can click the link below for last year's series.

Read Entire Series (click here)

Vicente and Willa Impact Bliss

Archive | Graphics

Tropical Storm Vicente 

We set sail from Port of Los Angeles (Long Beach) at 4 PM on schedule. While at dinner, about an hour and a half later, the captain came on the speaker to welcome us on board Norwegian Bliss and to update us on our itinerary for the week. Due to two tropical storms in the Pacific, one which will grow into a Major Hurricane in the next days, the Miami office altered our itinerary. Instead of sailing to the Mexican Riviera, we would make two stops in California (San Francisco & San Diego) and one in Mexico (Ensenada). Safety of the passengers, crew, and ship take precedence at all times, especially during Hurricane Season.

As you can see from the 5 day graphics below, Tropical Storm Vicente will set its eyes on Southern Mexico, while Willa will intensify into a Major Hurricane and head north to our original ports of call.

Archive | Graphics

Tropical Storm Willa

Tropical Storm Willa has rapidly intensified since genesis occurred last night,and it is almost a hurricane. The storm has taken advantage of near ideal environmental conditions and the current forecast shows Willa becoming a major hurricane in a day or so. These conditions are expected to prevail for another couple of days, and that should allow Willa to continue to strengthen rapidly.

Tropical Storm Willa	900 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...WILLA ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO..
WIND:	near 70 MPH...110 KM/H
WATCHES/ WARNINGS:	Interests along the coast of west-central mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

NHC ACTIVE STORMS (CLICK HERE)

Real-Time Cruise Ship Tracking

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANES (CLICK HERE)

• NHC issuing advisories for the Eastern Pacific on TS Vicente and TS Willa

Click Here to Learn More

Norwegian Cruise Line Weather Alert (click for latest)
Norwegian Bliss: The ship, which departed from Long Beach on October 20, will now call at San Francisco, San Diego, and Ensenada instead of Cabo San Lucas, Mazatlan, and Puerto Vallarta.
 

SHIP	SAIL DATE	STATUS	DESTINATION
Norwegian Bliss	October 20	Modified	now visiting w call at San Francisco, San Diego, and Ensenada

Hurricane Season Dates 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.
Make a Plan (FEMA) 

Read entire series (click here)

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.


Hurricane Preparedness Week:   
May 6-12, 2018

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