2019 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
Forecasters at the Colorado State University
are predicting that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below-normal activity. The season
begins June 1st and continues through November 30th.Their current (April 4th) forecast predicts a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
It is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April.
As is customary, NOAA made their first prediction at the end of May. So, why does Colorado State University's team of scientists create this forecast? Mainly because the public is curious about predictions based on the current global oceanic and atmospheric conditions. The forecasting team created their predictions using a statistical model based on 29 years worth of data. This is the 36th year in which the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has made forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity.
According to CSU scientists, "The current weak El Niño event appears likely to maintain intensity or perhaps
even strengthen during the summer/fall. The tropical Atlantic is slightly cooler than
normal, while the subtropical Atlantic is quite warm, and the far North Atlantic is
anomalously cool. The anomalously cold sea surface temperatures in the far North
Atlantic lead us to believe that the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation is in its negative
phase. There is considerable uncertainty as to what the configuration of Atlantic sea
surface temperatures will look like for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season."
Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.
The April forecast calls for 13 named tropical storms with 5 strengthening to hurricane status. Of those hurricanes, 2 are predicted to be a major hurricane (Category 3,4, or 5).
The team forecasts a 48% chance of one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline (compared to 52% for last century), 28% for U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (average for last century is 31%), 28% for Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for last century is 30%) and a 39% chance for the Caribbean (compared to 42% average for last century).
More reading: Current and Past Forecasts
Another reason why Colorado State University publishes forecasts is for hurricane preparedness. We too are publishing this information, along with updates throughout hurricane season, to help protect life and property when danger approaches.
As I've said many times, the cruise line industry has safety of passengers, crew, and vessels as their number one priority. The cruise lines work closely with the NHC and other agencies to monitor all sorts of weather conditions, including tropical storms. The ships may alter courses and cancel ports of call in order to maintain the level of safety for all onboard. We will keep you posted about any known itinerary changes during hurricane season. Should your cruise itinerary change due to a tropical storm, don't be upset, but rather thank the Captain and crew for taking you out of harm's way. Read our blog post 4 Things To Help Plan Vacation in Hurricane Season...
As is customary, NOAA made their first prediction at the end of May. So, why does Colorado State University's team of scientists create this forecast? Mainly because the public is curious about predictions based on the current global oceanic and atmospheric conditions. The forecasting team created their predictions using a statistical model based on 29 years worth of data. This is the 36th year in which the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has made forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity.
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Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.
The April forecast calls for 13 named tropical storms with 5 strengthening to hurricane status. Of those hurricanes, 2 are predicted to be a major hurricane (Category 3,4, or 5).
The team forecasts a 48% chance of one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline (compared to 52% for last century), 28% for U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (average for last century is 31%), 28% for Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for last century is 30%) and a 39% chance for the Caribbean (compared to 42% average for last century).
More reading: Current and Past Forecasts
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL
HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019
| Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Median (in parentheses) | Issue Date 4 April 2019 |
| Named Storms (NS) (12.1) | 13 |
| Named Storm Days (NSD) (59.4) | 50 |
| Hurricanes (H) (6.4) | 5 |
| Hurricane Days (HD) (24.2) | 16 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7) | 2 |
| Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (6.2) | 4 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (106) | 80 |
| Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (116%) | 90 |
Another reason why Colorado State University publishes forecasts is for hurricane preparedness. We too are publishing this information, along with updates throughout hurricane season, to help protect life and property when danger approaches.
As I've said many times, the cruise line industry has safety of passengers, crew, and vessels as their number one priority. The cruise lines work closely with the NHC and other agencies to monitor all sorts of weather conditions, including tropical storms. The ships may alter courses and cancel ports of call in order to maintain the level of safety for all onboard. We will keep you posted about any known itinerary changes during hurricane season. Should your cruise itinerary change due to a tropical storm, don't be upset, but rather thank the Captain and crew for taking you out of harm's way. Read our blog post 4 Things To Help Plan Vacation in Hurricane Season...
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