Sunday, August 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Hector in East Pacific

Tropical Storm Hector
  8th Named Storm for East Pacific 2012 Season
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...CENTER OF HECTOR EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO 
ISLAND THIS EVENING...

 
Tropical Storm Hector has formed some 600 miles West South-West of Manzanillo, Mexico. On the current track, it is not a threat to land.  
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 110.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
 
Historical data:    Storm Archive          Graphics Archive 
 
1000 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO...MOVING AWAY
FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... 
 
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012
 
...THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...
 
 

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Preparing for Vacation During Hurricane Season


Prepare Before 
You Go

Trip Planning

Hurricane Season Ahead

You've decided to take your vacation during hurricane season.  This might be your only trip this year, so you want to be assured that you and your family will enjoy their vacation.  A little bit of planning can assure that you've done everything within your control to guarantee that.  Some of the information here is applicable regardless of when you are traveling, so everyone should get some useful information in this article.

Don't Wait Until Last Minute to Plan
 
Everyone knows that as you get close to departure time, there's a lot to do.   For example, you'll stop your mail or make arrangements for someone else to get it for you,  arrange for your pets to be taken care of, stock up on sunscreen and other supplies for your trip ... the list may seem endless.

While threre will be some things that have to wait for the last minute, it's best to make a list of things to do and complete as many as you can early.  We've prepared a checklist, most of which can be done early.  While this is slanted towards a cruise vacation, most of the items are applicable to resort vacations as well.  It is important for suppliers to be able to contact you before you leave and during your trip.   Severe weather can quickly cause travel deviations.

BE PREPARED CHECKLIST
  • Monitor hurricane warnings before your trip
  • Activate cell phone international roaming if necessary
  • Make sure cruise line and travel agent have current contact information
  • Make sure airline has current contact information
  • Setup flight notifications with airline if possible
  • Share your itinerary with family and friends
  • Review your travel insurance policy for potential coverages
  • Call travel insurance provider to answer any questions about coverage
  • Provide emergency contact information to cruise line, travel agent, and airline
  • Keep passport, credit card, and necessary medication with you while in port
  • If you have a balcony cabin, put all personal articles away
  • Follow instructions given by ship's personnel
Resources to Help You 

As you get close to your departure date, one of the key things you'll want to do is stay on top of the weather forecast.   Scientific monitoring of weather systems has improved over the years and conditions that are favorable for tropical cyclones can be detected much earlier than years ago.  In many cases, an approaching storm will give at least 24 hours advance warning before strengthening into a powerful tropical storm or hurricane.

We've just updated the hurricane section on our Weather tab making it easier to find the resource (links) that you will want to visit.   We've broken the section into three main topics: 
  • Hurricane Preparedness & Predictions
  • Hurricane Educational Sites
  • Hurricane & Tropical Weather Monitoring
 MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANES (CLICK HERE)

Throughout hurricane season, we maintain our Hurricane Zone with updated information:

We also have live news feeds from various agencies, such as the NHC and NASA.  You can find these in the left-hand navigation on our blog.

International Travel

Our International Travel tab also has important planning information.   Here you'll find information about documenation requirements, local consulates, travel advisories, and general information about the countries you are visiting.   It is important for you to know about the destinations before you depart.
Review the Tips for Traveling Abroad.  You will have an enjoyable time if you use some common sense and follow some simple guidelines while traveling in foreign lands.  Make sure to listen to any advice given by your cruise director staff or resort staff.

On Your Trip
  
You and your traveling companions may be together most of the time, but not necessarily all the time.  It is important that each member of your traveling party knows the plan for meeting should you become separated and need to meet in the event of an emergency, or even just to return to your ship or resort.   

As you depart your ship or resort, pay attention to information about when you should be back.  Make sure that you have the same time as the ship / resort.  It is your responsibility to be back to the ship on time.  Also be sure that everyone has information about how to contact local authorities or port agents if assistance is needed.  This information is provided in the daily guide or supplemental material for the port.

Top 10 Reason For Trip Insurance
Protect Your Investment

Traveling during hurricane season increases the likelihood that you'll need some sort of assistance before, during, or even after your trip.  We highly recommend travel insurance regardless of when you travel, but especially during hurricane season.

When you think about travel insurance, you may think - I'm not planning on cancelling my trip, so why would I need travel insurance.  Recall what we said in our first installment of this series...   Expect the Unexpected.

Should you arrive at the airport and find that your flight has been delayed due to inclement weather, wouldn't it be comforting to have a pleasant voice on the other end of a telephone working on your behalf to salvage your hard-earned vacation plans?

What if someone in your party gets injured by something blowing around in the storm?   What if someone back home gets sick and needs your help?  The list of possible reasons for needing assistance are endless.   Did you know that it could cost upwards of $25,000 to be extracted from a ship in the event of a medical emergency?  Did you also know that Medicare and most health insurance companies do not cover you in a foreign land - and perhaps more importanly may not be in a position to recommend somewhere for you to get assistance in your time of need?

Discuss With Your Cruise & Vacation Specialist

We've provided you with a lot of information here which may be a bit overwhelming.   The goal of this article is not to worry you, but rather to reassure you that if you take the time to plan in advance, you will be prepared for the unexpected.   We hope that you'll never need any of the emergency assistance which is available to you through Travel Guard, our recommended provider, but if you do, we know they will be there to help you.

We'd be glad to answer any questions you might have on any of the information provided here.   Our goal is for you to have a wonderful, worry-free vacation.  Thank you for taking the time to read this important information.  

Friday, August 10, 2012

Thinking About Vacation During Hurricane Season

So You Want To Cruise or Vacation at a Resort During Hurricane Season ...

What to Expect
Pros & Cons
How to Prepare
Protecting Your Investment

The kids are out of school, you've saved up enough time to take a vacation, but you find out that the only time you have available is right in the middle of Hurricane Season.   Do you throw in the towel and forget your plans?   Or, is there hope after all that you can have a vacation?

What to Expect

That's an easy one to answer.   First of all, Expect the unexpected!!  You might think that sounds a bit ominous.  Well, not really.   If you have a plan in mind for unexpected situations, you can easily adapt to whatever comes your way.  We'll talk about how to prepare a bit later.

Hurricane season runs approximately from June 1 - November 30th.   This year, the first storm came a few days ahead of schedule, helping to make our point about expecting the unexpected. 

Secondly, Expect that your plans might have to change!!  There is only so much that you have control over in your life.  You certainly have no control over the weather, and the impact it may have on your plans.  

Finally, Expect that Safety will take Precedence over your vacation itinerary!!  Regardless of whether you are staying at a vacation resort or about to get on a cruise ship, you can be certain that a tropical storm heading your way can potentially alter your original plans.

Pros & Cons

Let's assume that you have decided to go ahead with a vacation in a tropical region that has the potential for tropical storms and hurricanes.   Knowing differences between the two major categories of vacations can help you select the right vacation for you.

We are making the assumption that you have planned your vacation in advance.  This means that you aren't selecting your destination with prior knowledge of the current weather forecast.   Tropical storms often form quickly with little or no warning and can often change course.

Some of the major differences:


VACATION PRO CON
Land - Resort
  • Can select destination based on past history of tropical storm activity impacting the region.
  • Selecting a location inland may lessen impact of a storm approaching the coast
  • Everyone at the resort has the same experience in a storm (don't have to contend with rough waves for example)
  • If the resort is part of a family of properties, they may be able to offer alternative plans if a storm is approaching
  • Safety is of utmost concern to the resort management - they will enforce measures to protect guests, staff, and property
  • Activities may be curtailed in advance of the storm
  • Resort might have to evacuate due to the storm, ending your vacation
  • A previous storm may have made reaching your destination impossible, causing cancellation
  • Vacation destination is in a fixed location which can't move to avoid a storm
  • Majority of activities are outdoors (such as water sports) so there is little to do during heavy rains of a tropical storm
  • It is highly likely that your vacation could be cancelled or terminated early due to weather
Sea - Cruise
  • Can select cruise destination based on past history of tropical storm activity impacting the region.
  • Ships can adjust their schedule to avoid approaching tropical storms and other severe weather
  • Even if the embarkation port is unreachable or damaged from a prior storm, alternate plans can be made to depart from a different location
  • There are activities indoors  (often including water sports) so there is still plenty to do during heavy rains of a tropical storm
  • It is unlikely that a cruise will be cancelled or terminated early due to weather 
  • Safety is of utmost concern to the cruise line management - they will enforce measures to protect guests, staff, and property
  • You may not get to the destination(s) you planned
  • Ports may be skipped and others substituted
  • Embarkation and debarkation ports could be changed causing travel deviations (eg. flights)
  • There could be rough seas causing discomfort for those that have problems with motion sickness 
  • Depending on your cabin location on the ship, you may feel the effects of the sea more than others

Flexibility is a Must

Each of you will look at the table above and draw your own conclusions.  One thing we want to point out is that your plans should be flexible if you are traveling during hurricane season.  If you desire to get away to some tropical destination and aren't set on a particular port, a cruise could be the perfect choice.  For example: it is highly probable that an East Caribbean vacation could instantly become a Western Caribbean cruise if a tropical storm warning is posted for the other region.

In the Atlantic this season, there have been six named storms to date.  Of those, only two of them impacted cruises at all.  The most recent storm, Ernesto, was the most disruptive impacting several ships in the region.  In all those cases, there were changes to destination ports and the cruise continued providing a tropical vacation.   Resorts in the area, were drenched by heavy rains.

To be Continued ...

In our next installment, we'll look at preparation and tell you how to take steps to protect your investment in a vacation.  Preparing for Vacation During Hurricane Season



Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Hurricane Predictions for Remainder of Atlantic Season


What's the Remainder of 2012 Atlantic 
Hurricane Season Look Like?


Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2012 (PDF)

The tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University looks at the Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast several times a year.   The initial forecast is released in early April with the second report being released at the start of the season in June.

We are now entering what typically is the start of the active part of the season with storms forming in the vicinity of Cape Verde Islands.   The chart above reflects the storms to date along with the revised forecast.


According to the report:  

"We anticipate a slightly-below average remainder of the hurricane season this year due to
an anticipated weak El Niño event and a tropical Atlantic that is less favorable than in the
past two years. This forecast is a slight increase from activity predicted in early June, due
to a slower-than-anticipated onset of El Niño and a somewhat more favorable tropical
Atlantic than observed earlier this year. We expect a slightly below-average probability
of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall."


Not "Out of the Woods"

At first read, you might think we have nothing to worry about.  Well, if you review the chart closely, you'll notice there have not been any major hurricanes in the Atlantic so far this year, however, there are at least 2 still predicted.   That means, there's a lot of potential for a powerful storm.

Read the entire article (PDF link above) to get complete details about their forecast, including background information about how they come to these conclusions.

NOAA Adjusts Prediction

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, released it's updated outlook which still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season. It increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.

The Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half.  The revised numbers are as follows:


  • 12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
  • 5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
  • 2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
Read the complete report:  NOAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño

Additional References

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Tropical Storm Gilma Forms in East Pacific

Tropical Storm Gilma graphic
Tropical Storm Gilma
  7th Named Storm for East Pacific 2012 Season
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...GILMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...

 
Tropical Storm Gilma has formed some 600 miles West South-West of Manzanillo, Mexico. On the current track, it is not a threat to land. It is currently a Category One Hurricane.
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 120.1W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
 
Historical Data:   Storm Archive                    Graphics Archive
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GILMA...

200 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2012

...GILMA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... 
 
800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
...GILMA BECOMES A HURRICANE... 
 
200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
...GILMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
 
800 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2012

...GILMA WEAKENS A LITTLE BUT STILL A HURRICANE...
 

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Tropical Storm Florence in Atlantic

Tropical Storm Florence forms in Atlantic
Tropical Storm Florence
  6th Named Storm for Atlantic 2012 Season
The sixth tropical storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season formed 350 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.   This storm is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday, August 5hth.

500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012

...FLORENCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
CRUISE SHIP ITINERARY IMPACT
----------------------------

NONE.


Real-Time Cruise Ship Tracking
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 38.8W
ABOUT 1610 MI...2590 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED
TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
 
Historical Data:  Storm Archive   Graphics Archive 

1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
800 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...  
 
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012
 
...FLORENCE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
 
500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012

...FLORENCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
 

Friday, August 3, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in Atlantic


(Graphic) Tropical Storm Ernesto
Click (here) for Interactive Map
Tropical Storm Ernesto
  5th Named Storm for Atlantic 2012 Season
700 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE
MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LASHING 
THE STATE OF CAMPECHE...
 
The fifth Atlantic Ocean tropical depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Ernesto on Thursday, August 2 at 5 p.m. EDT and tracked over St. Lucia early on August 3. Tropical storm warnings were posted for much of the area, but have now been discontinued. Ernesto continued its march towards the Western Caribbean Sea and dumped heavy rains on the region.   It grew to Hurricane strength just before making landfall in Mexico.  It currently has weakened but may regenerate into a hurricane again.

CRUISE SHIP ITINERARY IMPACT
----------------------------
Carnival Triumph, which departed Galveston today, has been impacted by Ernesto.
It had been scheduled to visit Progreso on Monday and Cozumel on Tuesday.
The ports have been swapped. 

Unconfirmed reports say that Disney Fantasy, is now sailing an Eastern
instead of Western Caribbean route to avoid the storm.

Carnival Itinerary Changes (click on this link for updates & more details)
-- Carnival Freedom (Aug. 5th) will swap ports
-- Carnival Legend (Aug. 5th) will replace Belize & Honduras with Montego Bay
-- Carnival Magic (Aug. 5th) won't sail original itinerary - two options listed
-- Carnival Dream (Aug. 5th) called on Cozumel, then switched to Eastern itinerary

Real-Time Cruise Ship Tracking
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 91.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND LATER ON
THURSDAY.
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 12 INCHES
OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.  ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
Historical Data:  Graphics   Storm Archive  

500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS... 
 
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
  
200 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
 
...CENTER OF ERNESTO PASSING NORTH OF BARBADOS...EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
 
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
 
...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... 
 
800 AM ADT SAT AUG 04 2012
 
AT 8 AM ADT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. 
 
800 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT... 
 
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012
 
...ERNESTO RACING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... 
 
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE... 
 
1015 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
...BELIZE RADAR INDICATES ERNESTO HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN COAST...