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| Credit:NOAA |
Predictions for 2014 Hurricane Season
We've already provided you with Colorado State University's April Prediction for the Atlantic Basin. NOAA has just released its predictions for the Atlantic Basin, Central and East Pacific regions.
- NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season
- NOAA predicts near-normal or above-normal Eastern Pacific hurricane season
- NOAA expects near-normal or above-normal Central Pacific hurricane season
- Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2014 - PDF Format
Looking Back and Looking Ahead
Hurricane Season Approaching
ACTIVE ATLANTIC PREDICTED
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an active season that turned out to be below-normal. In 2013, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued 196 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone forecasts, a number well below the average over the previous 5 yr (350). The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was the first Atlantic hurricane season since 1994 to feature no major hurricanes.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an active season that turned out to be below-normal. In 2013, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued 196 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone forecasts, a number well below the average over the previous 5 yr (350). The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was the first Atlantic hurricane season since 1994 to feature no major hurricanes.
Looking Back at 2013
In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season was above average. This year marks the thirteenth above-normal season since the current high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes began in 1995.
Atlantic Basin
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2013 Prediction | 2013 Actual |
| Named Storms (NS) (12.0) | 12-18 | 13 |
| Hurricanes (H) (6.5) | 6-10 | 2 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) | 3-6 | 0 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0) | 105 - 200 | 36 |
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The 2013 Eastern Northern Pacific Hurricane Season was well above average with the number of named storms double the average. Hurricanes exceeded the top estimate, but there was only one major hurricane. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was below normal.
East Pacific
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2013 Prediction | 2013 Actual |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 11 - 16 | 20 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 5 - 8 | 9 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 1 -4 | 1 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 105 - 200 | 71.81 |
Looking Ahead to 2014
As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post, 2014 CSU Atlantic Hurricane Prediction, for their 2014 predictions.
Atlantic Basin
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2014 Prediction | CSU 2014 Prediction |
| Named Storms (NS) (12.0) | 8-13 | 9 |
| Hurricanes (H) (6.5) | 3-6 | 3 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) | 1-2 | 1 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0) | 40 - 100 | 55 |
NOAA’s 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
East Pacific
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2014 Prediction |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 14 - 20 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 7 - 11 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 3 - 6 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 95-160 |
NOAA’s 2014 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook is calling for a 70 percent chance of 14 to 20 named storms, which includes 7 to 11 hurricanes, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below normal season.
Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index
An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season. According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications,
an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an
above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an
exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.
Hurricane Season Dates
Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.Download the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide (PDF)
This article starts our 2014 Hurricane Preparedness Series
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