Friday, August 16, 2013

Hurricane Predictions for Remainder of 2013 Atlantic Season

What's the Remainder of 2013 Atlantic 
Hurricane Season Look Like?

Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2013 (PDF)

The tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University looks at the Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast several times a year.   The initial forecast is released in early April with the second report being released at the start of the season in June.

We are now entering what typically is the start of the active part of the season with storms forming in the vicinity of Cape Verde Islands.   The chart above reflects the storms to date along with the revised forecast.


According to the report:  

"We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic. We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall"

Not "Out of the Woods"

At first read, you might think we have nothing to worry about.  Well, if you review the chart closely, you'll notice there have not been any major hurricanes in the Atlantic so far this year, however, there are at least 3 still predicted.   That means, there's a lot of potential for a powerful storm.

Read the entire article (PDF link above) to get complete details about their forecast, including background information about how they come to these conclusions.

NOAA Adjusts Prediction

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, released it's updated outlook which still indicates a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. 

The Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 5 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half.  The revised numbers are as follows:
    • 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
      • 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
      • 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
      Read the complete report:  NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal

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