NOAA predicts a Near-normal 2012 Atlantic & Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its annual Spring Hurricane predictions today.
Atlantic: Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season.
Eastern Pacific: Climate conditions point to a near-normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 30 percent probability of a below-normal season and a 20 percent probability of an above-normal season.
Looking Back and Looking Ahead
Hurricane Season Approaching
In the image above, courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Irene made landfall at approximately 7:30 am EDT on Aug. 27,
2011, near Cape Lookout, N.C. with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph
(Category 1). This NOAA GOES-13 satellite image captures Irene’s
landfall moment.
This was the scariest moment during the 2011 Hurricane Season. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an active season, but as Warnings Issued for Hurricane Irene, it was also the finest hour for NOAA's NHC as they had accurately predicted the path of the storm four days earlier.
Looking Back at 2011
In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season was above average, with 2011 ranking as the 14th busiest season since 1966.
Atlantic Basin
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2011 Prediction | 2011 Actual Results |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 12-18 | 19 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 6-10 | 7 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 3-6 | 4 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 105 - 200 | 138 |
For more details, read the complete NOAA 2011 Atlantic Seasonal Climate Summary
The 2011 Eastern Northern Pacific Hurricane Season was well above average. Despite predictions of a near-normal season, there were eleven named storms, ten hurricanes and six major hurricanes, all of which were above-average.
East Pacific
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2011 Prediction | 2011 Actual Results |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 9 - 15 | 11 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 5 - 8 | 10 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 1 - 3 | 6 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 45 - 105 | 118 |
Looking Ahead to 2012
As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in April and NOAA releases its predictions in late May. See our blog post, Below Average 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction, for CSU's 2012 predictions. They discontinued their December predictions due to previous inaccuracies.
Atlantic Basin
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2011 Prediction | CSU 2011 Prediction |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 9 - 15 | 10 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 4 - 8 | 4 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 1 - 3 | 2 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 65 - 140 | 70 |
East Pacific
| Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) | NOAA 2011 Prediction |
| Named Storms (NS) (9.6) | 9 - 15 |
| Hurricanes (H) (5.9) | 5 - 8 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) | 1 - 3 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) | 45 -105 |
Based on these early season predictions, and despite the early jump start on the Hurricane Season, this year should be near-normal. Of course, that doesn't imply that we should be complacent. It only takes one major hurricane making landfall to cause significant loss of life and property.
Additional References
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