Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Tropical Storm Karl Heading Toward Yucatan

5-Day Forecast Cone for Tropical Storm Karl (Credit: NOAA NHC)
Karl is 11th Named Storm in Atlantic
Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here

UPDATE: 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...KARL WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...
We began monitoring this storm Tuesday morning since there was a 40% chance that it would become a tropical cyclone.  Regardless of whether it became a cyclone or not, heavy rainfall was predicted for the area near the storm's center.  Mexico, which doesn't need more rain, is taking the brunt of this tropical storm.

Karl made landfall Friday morning, September 17th, about 10 miles north of the port city of Veracruz, flooding roads, knocking down trees, and killing at least two people in a mudslide.
 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE 
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
As a service to our readers, we have RSS feeds from the NHC which can provide up to date information about these tropical storms.   We will also monitor the cruise lines for any itinerary changes as a result of the storms.

Current Watches & Warnings
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  
 
Historical Watches & Warnings:
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ
 
  
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
Discussion & Outlook
  
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION (17 Sep)

LOCATION...18.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 75 MI..115 KM E OF PUEBLA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
KARL IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KARL IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND


WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR
THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE CENTER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AS KARL
WEAKENS.  WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND
MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN
THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 Cruise Line Advisories
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