Hurricanes: Perception vs Reality

Storm surge inundation (feet above ground level) based on Irma’s
actual track versus forecasted track. The wiggle to the east
spared the coastline from Naples northward to the
Cape Coral area from storm surge inundation
 greater than 9 feet above ground level. Image Credit: NOAA

• NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS Florence, TD Eight and TD Nine
• NHC issuing advisories for the Eastern Pacific on Hurricane Olivia
• WPC is issuing advisories on Gordon
• CPHC issuing advisories for the Central Pacific on Norman

There are a couple times each year that a fair amount of our Blog articles are focused on tropical storms and hurricanes.   Before the start of the Hurricane Season, we devote a series of articles to the education on Hurricane Preparedness.   This year's series can be found here: Hurricane Preparedness Week 2018.  The next concentration of articles occurs when the season gets into full swing, which normally happens September through late October.   Both the Atlantic and Pacific basins are active at the present time.

Hurricane Gordon made landfall with only minor impact on cruise itineraries.  It did however dump heavy rain on the Gulf Coast region.  Several storms of varying intensity are currently making their way westward in the Atlantic Ocean.   TS Florence is predicted to regain strength and become a major hurricane again before engaging with the East Coast of the United States.

While checking out the current storms on the NHC, we noticed the following article: NOAA NWS: Hurricanes: Common Misperceptions.   The graphic above was taken from that article.

Past Experience - Current Behavior

Although the science of hurricane / tropical storm tracking and predictions has significantly improved over the years, there is always a degree of uncertainty as the graphic demonstrates.   Just a small shift in the trajectory of a storm can alter which area is at risk. 

The article talks about how based on your experiences in the past hurricane season, you may make some decisions about hurricane preparation which could become a huge mistake.   Just because you've never flooded before for example, doesn't mean that you can't this year.   Perhaps you survived a Category 4 hurricane last year so you think you can survive again.  You need to ask yourself if you felt the full furry of that storm or if you were perhaps on the outer reaches and really only had winds that were tropical storm or Category 1 strength.   Don't risk it - please heed all advisories.

It's easy to get a false sense of security about storms or other natural disasters.  We had a personal experience where my husband was in Los Angeles on a business trip when a major earthquake struck the region.  My son and I still came out for the weekend and we all vacationed in Disneyland.  One of the aftershocks woke us, and my husband remarked "Go back to sleep, it's only an earthquake."  He said this because it wasn't as severe as the original shaking he had a couple days before, so he figured it couldn't be bad.  In hindsight, we should never have gone to the park.  Fortunately everything worked out just fine.  The article has additional examples of misconceptions.

Click Here to Learn More

Now is the Time To Have a Plan  

Don't wait for the NHC to issue a warning for your area.  Review our preparedness series and make plans for evacuation, safe keeping of your house, family, pets, and belongings.

If you are traveling to an area where tropical weather is forecast, be sure to keep close tabs on the updates.  We aren't necessarily saying you need to change your vacation plans, but be aware that you may need to alter your arrival / departure plans.  Click on the image to the left for some additional tips.

...FLORENCE POISED TO STRENGTHEN... ...THIS WEEKEND IS A GOOD TIME FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TO REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLAN...

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Keeping an Eye on Gordon

Graphics | Archive

Tropical Storm Gordon

If you haven't noticed before, we are heading into the most active part of the hurricane season.  Right now there are two storms in the Atlantic and two in the Pacific that are being tracked by the National Hurricane centers. 

The one that has everyone's attention is Tropical Storm Gordon, which should make landfall in the Gulf region sometime tonight as a hurricane.    All the states in its path are on high alert and preparations for heavy rainfall are underway. Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until landfall occurs tonight along the north-central Gulf coast.

• NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on Hurricane Florence and TS Gordon
• NHC issuing advisories for the Eastern Pacific on Hurricane Olivia
• CPHC issuing advisories for the Central Pacific on Norman

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here

Full coverage of this, and all tropical storms, can be found on our Hurricane Zone page.   There are RSS feeds from the National Hurricane Center posted there giving you up to the minute information.   For storms that impact cruises, we will bring you information on those details as well.  Please bookmark that page for further reference during the Hurricane Season which runs now through November 30th.

NHC ACTIVE STORMS (CLICK HERE)

Real-Time Cruise Ship Tracking

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANES (CLICK HERE)

Tropcial Storm Gordon	1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 ...OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING SQUALLY WEATHER ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...GORDON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE...
WIND:	near 65 MPH...100 KM/H
WATCHES/ WARNINGS:	A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line
SHIP IMPACT:	Royal Caribbean’s Majesty of the Seas ship departed Florida just before midnight Monday night September 3rd in order to sail behind the storm. The ship will flip its itinerary, but the voyage is still expected to make all of its ports of call. The Port of New Orleans Administration Building will close for all nonessential personnel at 2 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 4, 2018, in order to prepare for any possible weather-related activities due to Tropical Storm Gordon.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Shell Beach to Dauphin Island...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft.
Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama,
southern and central Mississippi, southeastern and northeastern
Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash
flooding across portions of these areas.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin this
afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane
conditions expected by this evening in the hurricane warning
area.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle.

Tropical Storm Gordon Formed in Atlantic

TD-8 Becomes Tropical Storm Gordon

7th Named Storm in the Atlantic

500 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012

...GORDON EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN AZORES MONDAY AS A
HURRICANE...

When the 7th named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Season, Gordon, formed, it was over open water in the Atlantic and of no threat to land.  Gordon became a hurricane over the weekend and is expected to move over the Eastern Azores Monday, August 20th as a hurricane.

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here

CRUISE ITINERARY IMPACT 

Cruise and Maritime Voyages' Marco Polo (August 11 sailing) will sail to Funchal, Madeira, to avoid the storm. Madeira is a Portuguese island to the southeast of the Azores, off the coast of Africa.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 27.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN AZORES 

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE A
HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN
AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION. 

Historical Data:   Graphics Archive      Storm Archive

500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...NO THREAT TO LAND...

500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

...ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

500 PM AST THU AUG 16 2012
 
...GORDON STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...