Hurricanes: Perception vs Reality

Storm surge inundation (feet above ground level) based on Irma’s
actual track versus forecasted track. The wiggle to the east
spared the coastline from Naples northward to the
Cape Coral area from storm surge inundation
 greater than 9 feet above ground level. Image Credit: NOAA

• NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS Florence, TD Eight and TD Nine
• NHC issuing advisories for the Eastern Pacific on Hurricane Olivia
• WPC is issuing advisories on Gordon
• CPHC issuing advisories for the Central Pacific on Norman

There are a couple times each year that a fair amount of our Blog articles are focused on tropical storms and hurricanes.   Before the start of the Hurricane Season, we devote a series of articles to the education on Hurricane Preparedness.   This year's series can be found here: Hurricane Preparedness Week 2018.  The next concentration of articles occurs when the season gets into full swing, which normally happens September through late October.   Both the Atlantic and Pacific basins are active at the present time.

Hurricane Gordon made landfall with only minor impact on cruise itineraries.  It did however dump heavy rain on the Gulf Coast region.  Several storms of varying intensity are currently making their way westward in the Atlantic Ocean.   TS Florence is predicted to regain strength and become a major hurricane again before engaging with the East Coast of the United States.

While checking out the current storms on the NHC, we noticed the following article: NOAA NWS: Hurricanes: Common Misperceptions.   The graphic above was taken from that article.

Past Experience - Current Behavior

Although the science of hurricane / tropical storm tracking and predictions has significantly improved over the years, there is always a degree of uncertainty as the graphic demonstrates.   Just a small shift in the trajectory of a storm can alter which area is at risk. 

The article talks about how based on your experiences in the past hurricane season, you may make some decisions about hurricane preparation which could become a huge mistake.   Just because you've never flooded before for example, doesn't mean that you can't this year.   Perhaps you survived a Category 4 hurricane last year so you think you can survive again.  You need to ask yourself if you felt the full furry of that storm or if you were perhaps on the outer reaches and really only had winds that were tropical storm or Category 1 strength.   Don't risk it - please heed all advisories.

It's easy to get a false sense of security about storms or other natural disasters.  We had a personal experience where my husband was in Los Angeles on a business trip when a major earthquake struck the region.  My son and I still came out for the weekend and we all vacationed in Disneyland.  One of the aftershocks woke us, and my husband remarked "Go back to sleep, it's only an earthquake."  He said this because it wasn't as severe as the original shaking he had a couple days before, so he figured it couldn't be bad.  In hindsight, we should never have gone to the park.  Fortunately everything worked out just fine.  The article has additional examples of misconceptions.

Click Here to Learn More

Now is the Time To Have a Plan  

Don't wait for the NHC to issue a warning for your area.  Review our preparedness series and make plans for evacuation, safe keeping of your house, family, pets, and belongings.

If you are traveling to an area where tropical weather is forecast, be sure to keep close tabs on the updates.  We aren't necessarily saying you need to change your vacation plans, but be aware that you may need to alter your arrival / departure plans.  Click on the image to the left for some additional tips.

...FLORENCE POISED TO STRENGTHEN... ...THIS WEEKEND IS A GOOD TIME FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TO REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLAN...

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