2024 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
Forecasters at the
Colorado State University
are predicting that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have an extremely active 2024 hurricane season. The season
begins June 1st and continues through November 30th.
UPDATED: JULY 9, 2024
On Tuesday, Colorado State researchers raised expectations following a hot start to the 2024 season. Experts are now expecting 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes in the Atlantic this year. The center pointed to Hurricane Beryl's record-breaking formation and intensity as indicative of the ongoing extreme conditions in the ocean.
Their current (June 11th) and past (April 4th) forecast predicts a 50% more likelyhood (over the averages from 1880 - 2020) for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
The updated June forecast takes newly available data into consideration as the season
commences. Uncertainty remains in the forecast, however, as the atmosphere-ocean system
can sometimes change dramatically between this month and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane
season, which runs from August–October.
As is customary,
NOAA
made their first prediction at the end of May. So, why does Colorado State University's team of scientists create an April forecast? Mainly because the public is curious about predictions based on the current global oceanic and atmospheric conditions. The
forecasting team created their predictions using a statistical model
based on 29 years worth of data. This is the 41st year in which the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has made
forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity.
According to CSU scientists, "El Niño conditions are weakening quickly across the tropical Pacific and are likely to transition
to La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña tends to weaken
upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic. These decreased
upper-level winds result in reduced vertical wind shear, favoring Atlantic hurricane formation
and intensification. "
Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.
The Juine forecast
calls for 23 named tropical storms with 11 strengthening to hurricane
status. Of those hurricanes, 5 are predicted to be a major hurricane
(Category 3,4, or 5). The team will issue additional forecasts on July 9 and Aug. 6.
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
The team forecasts 62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%),34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is
21%),42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average
from 1880–2020 is 27%), and 66% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).
This is the highest predicted number of hurricanes that CSU has ever issued in a June outlook.
The prior high was for 10 hurricanes in 2010 (when 12 were observed) and in 2022 (when eight
were observed). June forecasts have been issued by CSU since 1984.
More reading:
Current and Past Forecasts
Another reason why Colorado State University publishes forecasts is for
hurricane preparedness.
We too are publishing this information, along with updates throughout
hurricane season, to help protect life and property when danger
approaches.
As I've said many times, the cruise line industry has safety of
passengers, crew, and vessels as their number one priority. The cruise
lines work closely with the
NHC
and other agencies to monitor all sorts of weather conditions,
including tropical storms. The ships may alter courses and cancel
ports of call in order to maintain the level of safety for all
onboard. We will keep you posted about any known itinerary changes
during hurricane season. Should your cruise itinerary change due to a
tropical storm, don't be upset, but rather thank the Captain and crew
for taking you out of harm's way. Read our blog post
4 Things To Help Plan Vacation in Hurricane Season...
More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the
Weather &
Hurricane Zone tabs above. We will feature several articles during Hurricane Preparedness week once again. Until then, you can click the link below for last year's series.
I recently completed extensive training and have become Travel Safety Verified. As your dedicated Travel Advisor, your safety is our priority, and it's our job to ensure you have the necessary information you need to give you confidence and peace of mind when making your future travel plans. Click the link to review our Travel Safety program with valuable resources that will answer many of your questions.
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