Showing posts with label Colorado State University. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Colorado State University. Show all posts

Saturday, June 22, 2024

2024 Hurricanes - How They Work

2024 Hurricane Preparedness Week


Hurricane Basics & History

Hurricane Preparedness Week playlist on YouTube

"Too many families know the pain of having their lives and livelihoods devastated by powerful hurricanes, tropical storms, and typhoons. During National Hurricane Preparedness Week, we shed light on the dangerous impacts of hurricanes and share best practices on how to prepare and stay safe. We also show our gratitude to the first responders, volunteers, and all those who help to prepare communities in advance and rescue, recover, and rebuild in the wake of their darkest moments."  President Biden

Hurricane Zone
Looking for past or current hurricanes?  Click Image or Here

President Obama declared May 5 - May 11 “National Hurricane Preparedness Week." FEMA, along with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is helping to raise awareness of steps that can be taken to help protect citizens, and their communities and property. 

What is a Hurricane?
A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, which is a generic term for a low pressure system that generally forms in the tropics. The cyclone is accompanied by thunderstorms and, in the Northern Hemisphere, a counterclockwise circulation of winds near the earth's surface. Tropical cyclones are classified as follows:

* Sustained winds
A 1-minute average wind measured at about 33 ft (10 meters) above the surface.

** 1 knot = 1 nautical mile per hour or 1.15 statute miles per hour. Abbreviated as "kt".
Tropical Depression
An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds* of 38 mph (33 kt**) or less

Tropical Storm
An organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)

Hurricane
An intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 kt) or higher

Familiarize yourself with the terms that are used to identify a hurricane.
  • A hurricane watch means a hurricane is possible in your area. Be prepared to evacuate. Monitor local radio and television news outlets or listen to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest developments.
  • A hurricane warning is when a hurricane is expected in your area. If local authorities advise you to evacuate, leave immediately.
Hurricanes are classified into five categories based on their wind speed, central pressure, and damage potential. Category Three and higher hurricanes are considered major hurricanes, though Categories One and Two are still extremely dangerous and warrant your full attention.The following chart details the categories and the damage that can result from a storm with that strength.
 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale for Kids (NASA)

Scale Number (Category) Sustained  Winds Damage Storm Surge



1
74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days. 4-5 feet



2
96-110 mph
83-95 kt
154-177 km/h
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. 6-8 feet



(major)
111-129 mph
96-112 kt
178-208 km/h
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes. 9-12 feet



4
(major)
130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. 13-18 feet



(major)
157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Greater than 18 feet

Hurricane History


In the following article, we  look at NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season which is expected to be very active.

NHC Data Archive

We will continue coverage of Hurricane Preparedness Week by looking at some of the hazards starting tomorrow.  Additional Hurricane information can be found in our static Hurricane Zone tab.




Hurricane Prep Series
Read entire series (click here)

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.


If you live in, or plan to vacation in, an area where hurricanes are prevalent, please prepare in advance by reading our series.





I recently completed extensive training and have become Travel Safety Verified. As your dedicated Travel Advisor, your safety is our priority, and it's our job to ensure you have the necessary information you need to give you confidence and peace of mind when making your future travel plans. Click the link to review our Travel Safety program with valuable resources that will answer many of your questions.




Where have you explored? 

Gather your travel and food pics and join us every Wednesday for the latest installment of #FoodTravelChat





2024 CSU Atlantic Hurricane Prediction


2024 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

Forecasters at the Colorado State University are predicting that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have an extremely active 2024 hurricane season. The season begins June 1st and continues through November 30th.

UPDATED: JULY 9, 2024


On Tuesday, Colorado State researchers raised expectations following a hot start to the 2024 season. Experts are now expecting 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes in the Atlantic this year. The center pointed to Hurricane Beryl's record-breaking formation and intensity as indicative of the ongoing extreme conditions in the ocean.

 
Their current (June 11th) and past (April 4th) forecast predicts a 50% more likelyhood (over the averages from 1880 - 2020) for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

The updated June forecast takes newly available data into consideration as the season commences. Uncertainty remains in the forecast, however, as the atmosphere-ocean system can sometimes change dramatically between this month and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from August–October.

As is customary, NOAA made their first prediction at the end of May. So, why does Colorado State University's team of scientists create an April forecast? Mainly because the public is curious about predictions based on the current global oceanic and atmospheric conditions. The forecasting team created their predictions using a statistical model based on 29 years worth of data.  This is the 41st year in which the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has made forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity.

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here

According to CSU scientists, "El Niño conditions are weakening quickly across the tropical Pacific and are likely to transition to La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña tends to weaken upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic. These decreased upper-level winds result in reduced vertical wind shear, favoring Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification. "

Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.

The Juine forecast calls for 23 named tropical storms with 11 strengthening to hurricane status. Of those hurricanes, 5 are predicted to be a major hurricane (Category 3,4, or 5). The team will issue additional forecasts on July 9 and Aug. 6.

The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
 
The team forecasts 62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%),34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%),42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average from 1880–2020 is 27%), and 66% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).

This is the highest predicted number of hurricanes that CSU has ever issued in a June outlook. The prior high was for 10 hurricanes in 2010 (when 12 were observed) and in 2022 (when eight were observed). June forecasts have been issued by CSU since 1984.
 
More reading: Current and Past Forecasts




Another reason why Colorado State University publishes forecasts is for hurricane preparedness.   We too are publishing this information, along with updates throughout hurricane season, to help protect life and property when danger approaches.

As I've said many times,  the cruise line industry has safety of passengers, crew, and vessels as their number one priority.   The cruise lines work closely with the NHC and other agencies to monitor all sorts of weather conditions, including tropical storms.   The ships may alter courses and cancel ports of call in order to maintain the level of safety for all onboard.  We will keep you posted about any known itinerary changes during hurricane season.   Should your cruise itinerary change due to a tropical storm, don't be upset, but rather thank the Captain and crew for taking you out of harm's way.  Read our blog post 4 Things To Help Plan Vacation in Hurricane Season...

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.  We will feature several articles during Hurricane Preparedness week once again.   Until then, you can click the link below for last year's series.

Read Entire Series (click here)



I recently completed extensive training and have become Travel Safety Verified. As your dedicated Travel Advisor, your safety is our priority, and it's our job to ensure you have the necessary information you need to give you confidence and peace of mind when making your future travel plans. Click the link to review our Travel Safety program with valuable resources that will answer many of your questions.




Where have you explored? 

Gather your travel and food pics and join us every Wednesday for the latest installment of #FoodTravelChat





Monday, June 3, 2019

NOAA 2019 Hurricane Predictions

Credit NOAA (click to enlarge)

Predictions for 
2019 Hurricane Season


We've already provided you with Colorado State University's April Prediction for the Atlantic Basin.  NOAA has just released its predictions for the Atlantic Basin, Central and East Pacific regions.



Looking Back and Looking Ahead
Hurricane Season Approaching 

Looking Back at 2018

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season  was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging hurricane seasons, featuring 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes. The season will be best remembered for Hurricanes Florence and Michael, which caused significant damage in the Southeastern United States. 2018 was the first season since 2008 to feature four named storms active simultaneously (Florence, Helene, Isaac, and Joyce). The season also was the first on record to see seven storms that were subtropical at some point in their lifetimes (Alberto, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Joyce, Leslie, and Oscar).

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season was well above average.  For more details, read  NOAA: Destructive 2018 Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end.


Atlantic Basins

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2018
Prediction
2018
Actual
Named Storms (NS) (12.0)10 - 1615
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)5 - 98
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)1 - 42
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0)63 - 145133


Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive

The 2018 Pacific hurricane season produced the highest accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value on record. With 23 named storms, it was the fourth-most active season on record, tied with 1982.

East Pacific


Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2018
Prediction
2018
Actual
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)14 - 2023
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)7- 1213
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)3 - 710
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 80 - 160202

Looking Ahead to 2018


As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post,  2019 CSU Atlantic Hurricane Predictionfor their 2019 predictions.


click to enlarge




Forecasters predict a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30.

NOAA’s forecasters predict a 70-percent likelihood of 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

East Pacific

An 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season is predicted for both the eastern and central Pacific regions. The eastern Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 14 to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 12 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 major hurricanes.

Central Pacific

The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

ACE - Atlantic / Pacific

click images to enlarge



An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season.  According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.

Hurricane Season Dates 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.
Make a Plan (FEMA) 



Read entire series (click here)

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.


If you live in, or plan to vacation in, an area where hurricanes are prevalent, please prepare in advance by reading our series.