NOAA 2019 Hurricane Predictions

Credit NOAA (click to enlarge)

Predictions for 
2019 Hurricane Season

We've already provided you with Colorado State University's April Prediction for the Atlantic Basin.  NOAA has just released its predictions for the Atlantic Basin, Central and East Pacific regions.

• Getting ready for the Atlantic hurricane season
• Video: What You Should...and Should Not...Do with the NHC Forecast Cone ( download available here )
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season and above-normal 2019 Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific hurricane season.

Looking Back and Looking Ahead

Hurricane Season Approaching 

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Looking Back at 2018

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season  was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging hurricane seasons, featuring 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes. The season will be best remembered for Hurricanes Florence and Michael, which caused significant damage in the Southeastern United States. 2018 was the first season since 2008 to feature four named storms active simultaneously (Florence, Helene, Isaac, and Joyce). The season also was the first on record to see seven storms that were subtropical at some point in their lifetimes (Alberto, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Joyce, Leslie, and Oscar).

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season was well above average.  For more details, read  NOAA: Destructive 2018 Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end.

Atlantic Basins

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2018 Prediction	2018 Actual
Named Storms (NS) (12.0)	10 - 16	15
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)	5 - 9	8
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)	1 - 4	2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0)	63 - 145	133

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive

The 2018 Pacific hurricane season produced the highest accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value on record. With 23 named storms, it was the fourth-most active season on record, tied with 1982.

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	NOAA 2018 Prediction	2018 Actual
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	14 - 20	23
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	7- 12	13
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)	3 - 7	10
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	80 - 160	202

Looking Ahead to 2018

As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post,  2019 CSU Atlantic Hurricane Prediction, for their 2019 predictions.

click to enlarge

Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Name (click link)

Atlantic Basin

Forecasters predict a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30.

NOAA’s forecasters predict a 70-percent likelihood of 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

East Pacific

An 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season is predicted for both the eastern and central Pacific regions. The eastern Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 14 to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 12 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 major hurricanes.

Central Pacific

The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

ACE - Atlantic / Pacific

click images to enlarge

An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season.  According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.

Hurricane Season Dates 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.
Make a Plan (FEMA) 

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More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.


If you live in, or plan to vacation in, an area where hurricanes are prevalent, please prepare in advance by reading our series.

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Hurricane Preparedness - After the Storm

Recovering from Disaster

Final In the Series

Rebuilding After the Storm


We conclude our coverage of  Hurricane Preparedness Week by looking at recovering from the storm.  Three organizations come to mind when you think about the aftermath of a hurricane or other natural disaster:  FEMA, Red Cross, and the National Guard.  There are many other organizations and individuals that also play a key role in providing immediate and long-term assistance to those impacted by the hazards of hurricanes and other natural disasters.


Recovering from a disaster is usually a gradual process with the first concern being immediate search and recovery while keeping safety in mind.   After the area has been made safe, the recovery process can begin.  Here are some resources that are helpful after the storm:

• Health and Safety Guidelines

  

  click image to enlarge graphic  (Courtesy CPHC)

• Returning Home
• Seeking Disaster Assistance
• Coping with Disaster
• Helping Others
• Returning Home (NHSI) 

Even with all the scientific advances in recent years, it is still impossible to predict how many storms will occur in a given year and what communities lie in their path.   Just like in sports, the best defense is a good offense.

NOW is the TIME to PREPARE

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Hurricane Preparedness - Evacuation Plan

In this case, Hurricane Preparedness is that secret play that can make the difference in loss of property and lives.  It is for that reason that we have participated with NOAA, FEMA and other organizations in sharing these public service announcements.   We have been covering hurricane preparedness for years, so if you still need more information, you can check out some of our other articles which can be found via links in our Hurricane Zone page.

Read entire series (click here)

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.


If you live in, or plan to vacation in, an area where hurricanes are prevalent, please prepare in advance by reading our series.

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Hurricane Preparedness - Being Prepared

Prepare Written Plan

Hurricane Planning The time to prepare for a hurricane is before the season begins, when you have the time and are not under pressure. If you wait until a hurricane is on your doorstep, the odds are that you will be under duress and will make the wrong decisions. Take the time now to write down your hurricane plan. Know where you will ride out the storm and get your supplies now. You don’t want to be standing in long lines when a Hurricane Watch is issued. Those supplies that you need will probably be sold out by the time you reach the front of the line. Being prepared, before a hurricane threatens, makes you resilient to the hurricane impacts of wind and water. It will mean the difference between your being a hurricane victim and a hurricane survivor. http://www.ready.gov/make-a-plan http://hurricanes.gov/prepare http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/

Click on this interactive image to learn more about being prepared for Hurricanes and other Disasters

Inside the Eye: Day 7: Complete Your Written Hurricane Plan

Hurricane Preparedness - Evacuation Plan

NOW is the TIME to PREPARE

There's still time before the official start of Hurricane Season 2018 in the Atlantic Basin.   Hopefully this series of articles and the resources that we've shared will assist you in keeping your family and property safe this season.   Regardless of the season forecast, it only takes one storm....

Our final article will take a look at what to do after the storm.  Thank you for taking this seriously.

Read entire series (click here)

More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.


If you live in, or plan to vacation in, an area where hurricanes are prevalent, please prepare in advance by reading our series.

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