Tropical Storm Karl Heading Toward Yucatan

5-Day Forecast Cone for Tropical Storm Karl (Credit: NOAA NHC)

Click for Current 5-Day Graphic

Karl is 11th Named Storm in Atlantic

Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here

UPDATE: 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...KARL WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...

NHC issuing advisories on Hurricane IGOR, Hurricane JULIA and Tropical Storm KARL

NEW ... NHC Live Video Updates
NEW... NHC unveils new Storm Surge web page 

RELATED BLOG POSTS:

Current Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical Storm Julia Forms in Atlantic
Igor Expected to Become a Hurricane

Due to IGOR: Cruise Line Advisories (Click Here)

 

We began monitoring this storm Tuesday morning since there was a 40% chance that it would become a tropical cyclone.  Regardless of whether it became a cyclone or not, heavy rainfall was predicted for the area near the storm's center.  Mexico, which doesn't need more rain, is taking the brunt of this tropical storm.

Karl made landfall Friday morning, September 17th, about 10 miles north of the port city of Veracruz, flooding roads, knocking down trees, and killing at least two people in a mudslide.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE 

FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

As a service to our readers, we have RSS feeds from the NHC which can provide up to date information about these tropical storms.   We will also monitor the cruise lines for any itinerary changes as a result of the storms.

Current Watches & Warnings

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  

Historical Watches & Warnings:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ
 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

Discussion & Outlook
 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION (17 Sep)

LOCATION...18.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 75 MI..115 KM E OF PUEBLA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
KARL IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KARL IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR
THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE CENTER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AS KARL
WEAKENS.  WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND
MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN
THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

 Cruise Line Advisories

There are no advisories related to this storm at this time - monitor the following for any changes.
 

Due to IGOR: Cruise Line Advisories (Click Here)

Tropical Storm Resources (click links below)
Tropical Storm KARL	National Hurricane Center
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook	National Weather Service
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion	Hurricane Preparedness
Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (ATL)	Real-Time Hurricane Information
Active Storms	NOAA Satellites & Information
NASA: Latest Storm Images	WMO Severe Weather Information Centre
Real-time Monitoring (Atlantic)	The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Real-time Weather Sites	Real-Time Cruise Ship Tracking

Hurricane Ida Heads for Gulf of Mexico

Chart Courtesy of NOAA: 1200 PM EST (Ida) Wed Nov 8, 2009 (click for udated chart)

<more details>

Hurricane Ida

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here

900 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009... IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

900 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009... IDA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

Mobile and New Orleans Port Closures

Impacts Carnival Cruises

Tropical Storm IDA, which at one point was a Category Two Hurricane, entered the Gulf of Mexico Sunday afternoon. This is the first storm of the season to track into this region. Tropical Storm watches are warnings are posted for the Gulf Coast region.

As a service to my clients and my blog readers, we'll provided continual updates on tropical storms and any cruise line advisories that are posted. For convenience, RSS feeds are also added so that you can get up-to-date information between posts. <NHC Active Storms>

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat.
PublicAdvisory #39 1000 AM EST Friday, November 13, 2009

UPDATE: 900 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009... IDA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH... 55KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND ITS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IDA TURNS NORTHWARD... SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVERNIGHT... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS IDA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL... AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON WEDNESDAY.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES... THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. This also ends our coverage of this tropical storm.

Local Weather Statements

404 PM CST MON NOV 9 2009

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

<more details> <click for updated chart>

<NWS - Local Weather>

<NASA Hurricane Tracking>

Cruise Ship Tropical Storm

Updates / Itinerary Changes

The following are links to the most recent advisory posted by the respective cruise line. As we learn of changes, this post will be updated.

This storm isn't as predictable as others so far this hurricane season. As you can see from the real-time tracking link below, there are a number of ships in the area that could be affected by Ida depending on the track it takes over the next few days.

<CARNIVAL> <Norwegian Cruise Line> <Royal Caribbean>

CARNIVAL TROPICAL UPDATE - November 9, 2009
We are closely monitoring the progress of Hurricane IDA. All of our ships are currently operating at a safe distance from the storm. Our number one priority is the safety of our guests and crew.
Due to the impact from the storm and the related port closures in New Orleans and Mobile, we will modify the following itineraries:

Carnival Triumph – November 10, 2009 Departure
The 4 day cruise scheduled to depart on Tuesday, November 10 will be changed to a 3 day cruise departing on Wednesday, November 11. The scheduled call in Cozumel will be cancelled. Guests that sail on the 3 day cruise will receive a 50% refund of the cruise fare paid for the 4 day cruise.

Carnival Fantasy - November 10, 2009 Departure
The 6 day cruise scheduled to depart on Tuesday, November 10 will be changed to a 5 day cruise departing on Wednesday, November 11. The scheduled call in Progresso will be cancelled and the calls in Cozumel and Costa Maya will be operated as scheduled. Guests that sail on the 5 day cruise will receive a one day pro-rated refund of the cruise fare paid for the 6 day cruise.
Additional updates will be provided if any new information becomes available.

PRINCESS CRUISES: Crown Princess (Nov 6, 2009)

Crown Princess will be rearranging the port calls on its November 7 itinerary to avoid Tropical Storm Ida. The ship will depart Fort Lauderdale as scheduled, and the new cruise itinerary will be as follows: Princess Cays; sea day; Grand Cayman; Roatan, Honduras; Cozumel, Mexico; sea day; return to Fort Lauderdale.

Live Cruise Ship and Ocean Liner Tracking:

<Interactive tracking map> See where ships are relative to tropical storms.

Cruise lines will do everything to keep passengers and crew safe. A cruise is rarely cancelled because of weather, even hurricanes. The cruise lines monitor progress of any storms both in their main offices and onboard the vessels. They work closely with the various weather services, such as NOAA and NHC, to make determinations about itinerary deviations.

Continue to watch this post, I will provide updates as conditions change. If you are on a cruise this week in the area, be sure to monitor the storm closely.