Thursday, May 31, 2018

NOAA 2018 Hurricane Predictions

Credit NOAA (click to enlarge)

Predictions for 
2018 Hurricane Season


We've already provided you with Colorado State University's April Prediction for the Atlantic Basin.  NOAA has just released its predictions for the Atlantic Basin, Central and East Pacific regions.



Looking Back and Looking Ahead
Hurricane Season Approaching 

Looking Back at 2017

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was a hyperactive and catastrophic hurricane season, featuring 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes – ranking it alongside 1936 as the fifth-most active season since records began in 1851. The season also featured both the highest total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and the highest number of major hurricanes since 2005.

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was well above average.  For more details, read  NOAA: Extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season finally ends


Atlantic Basins

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2017
Prediction
2017
Actual
Named Storms (NS) (12.0)11 - 1717
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)5 - 910
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)2 - 46
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0)63 - 103224

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive


The 2017 Pacific hurricane season was a moderately active Pacific hurricane season, featuring eighteen named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, though the season was significantly less active than the previous three seasons. The season saw near-average activity in terms of ACE, in stark contrast to the extremely active seasons in 2014, 2015, and 2016; and for the first time since 2012, no tropical cyclones formed in the Central Pacific basin. However, for the third year in a row, the season featured above-average activity in July, with the ACE value being the fifth highest for the month.

East Pacific


Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2017
Prediction
2017
Actual
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)14 - 2018
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)6 - 119
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)3 - 74
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 75 - 145100

Looking Ahead to 2018


As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post,  2018 CSU Atlantic Hurricane Predictionfor their 2018 predictions.


(click images to enlarge)  Credit NOAA


Forecasters predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30.

NOAA’s forecasters predict a 70-percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

East Pacific

An 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season is predicted for both the eastern and central Pacific regions. The eastern Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 14 to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 12 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 major hurricanes.

Central Pacific

The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 3 to 6 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

ACE - Atlantic / Pacific

click images to enlarge


An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season.  According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.

Hurricane Season Dates 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.
Make a Plan (FEMA) 

Read entire series (click here)


More links and information about tropical storms and other weather conditions can be found in the Weather & Hurricane Zone tabs above.


Hurricane Preparedness Week:   
May 6-12, 2018
@ChrisPappinMCC



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Friday, May 25, 2018

Thoughts on Memorial Day 2018


History of Memorial Day: Three years after the Civil War ended, on May 5, 1868, the head of an organization of Union veterans — the Grand Army of the Republic (GAR) — established Decoration Day as a time for the nation to decorate the graves of the war dead with flowers. May 30th was chosen for Decoration Day because it was believed that flowers would be in bloom all across the country.

On Memorial Day the flag should be flown at half-staff from sunrise until noon only, then raised briskly to the top of the staff until sunset, in honor of the nation’s battle heroes. In the early days of our country, no regulations existed for flying the flag at half-staff and, as a result, there were many conflicting policies. But on March 1, 1954, President Dwight Eisenhower issued a proclamation on the proper times.

You will notice in the collage above, that the flag is flying at half-staff. Those pictures were taken during our visit to the American Cemetary in Normandy, France. It was very moving seeing row after row of graves. For more pictures from our visit to Normandy, see my previous posts on the topic and also our cruise vacations website.


I've mentioned several times in the past about the opportunity to relive history while on a cruise vacation. This is especially true in Europe due to the large battle field from the World Wars. Whether your cruise vacation takes you to Normandy, France or Honolulu, Hawaii, please take some time to visit a historical site and pay your respects to the troops that fought to keep America strong. We have done so on several cruises and of all the trips we've taken, those tend to stand out in my mind. Don't forget to bring you children with you so that they too can learn about war first hand.

As Albert Schweitzer said "... Wargraves are the great communicators of peace ..." Perhaps another more striking quote was by George Santayanan who said "Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

And who can forget those immortal words of President John F. Kennedy: "And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you - ask what you can do for your country. My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man. "


To the brave men and women, living and deceased, who have taken President Kennedy's charge to heart, Thank You for your Service. May we never forget the sacrifices you have made.

Sunday, May 20, 2018

Attention Golfers - Feeling Lucky

Join Us for Fun Day of Golf & Prizes 
Bartlett Hills Golf Club & Banquets
800 W. Oneida, Bartlett, IL 60103
June 21, 2018



I’m sponsoring a Hole-In-One Contest for this year’s Bartlett Area Chamber of Commerce Golf Outing.

If you get a Hole-In-One on Hole #3, you win $5,000 towards a dream vacation booked through me.

Where would YOU go on YOUR dream vacation 
with $5000 to spend?

Click here to explore resort and cruise options for most popular vacation destinations.

You could also win Travis Mathew $500 online shopping spree, $2000 Complimentary Golf from TeeOff.com or a Luxurious 4-day 3-night Golf Vacation at French Lick Resort.




Where Do You Wanna Go?
$5000 towards Your
Dream Vacation
Could be Yours 
with Hole-In-One
A portion of all Sponsorships goes towards the BACC Scholarship Fund


@ChrisPappinMCC
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Saturday, May 19, 2018

2018 National Safe Boating Week


Life Jackets Save Lives







click logo to read our related article

Announcements on NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards

2018 Safe Boating Week : May 19 - 25
Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thu. Fri.

Life Jackets

Fire Extinguishers

Boating Under the Influence

Distress Beacons

Thunderstorm Safety

Hurricane Preparedness

Marine
Forecast


Approximately 500 people drown each year from recreational boating accidents, so we've teamed up with NOAA and the National Safe Boating Council to remind you to  "Wear It!"  when you are on the water.   Here are some links for you to learn additional information about boating safety.


        May 19 - 25, 2018

Click on Infographic to enlarge - daily messages will also be posted on our Facebook & Twitter feeds.



North America Safe Boating Campaign

Ready Set Wear It

NWS National Safe Boating Week

National Safe Boating Council

USCG Boating Safety Resource Center

USCG Boat Rental Safety



More links and information about safe boating can be found on National Safe Boating Counsel
website.
@ChrisPappinMCC


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