Saturday, May 28, 2016

NOAA 2016 Hurricane Predictions

Credit NOAA
Predictions for 
2016 Hurricane Season

We've already provided you with Colorado State University's April Prediction for the Atlantic Basin.  NOAA has just released its predictions for the Atlantic Basin, Central and East Pacific regions.


Looking Back and Looking Ahead
Hurricane Season Approaching 
NEAR-NORMAL ATLANTIC PREDICTED

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) had predicted an below-normal season which is what actually resulted.  The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season was a below average Atlantic hurricane season that produced eleven named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Looking Back at 2015

In the chart below, the numbers in parenthesis are the averages, so you can easily see that the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season was slightly below average.  

Atlantic Basin
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2015
Prediction
2015
Actual
Named Storms (NS) (12.0) 6 - 11 11
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)3 - 64
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) 0 - 2 2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0)  40 - 85 63

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive


The 2015 Eastern Northern Pacific Hurricane Season was well above average with the number of named storms more than double the average.  Hurricanes exceeded the top estimate, and there were 10 major hurricanes.  The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was well above normal.  The Central Pacific was also active with 8 tropical storms with 3 hurricanes, of which 1 was a major storm.

East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2015
Prediction
2015
Actual
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 15-22 18
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)7 - 1213
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) 5-8 10
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)  110-190 250

For more details, read the complete NOAA 2015 Active eastern and central Pacific seasons shatter records
Looking Ahead to 2016




As is customary, the Colorado State University releases its predictions in December and April. See our blog post,  2016 CSU Atlantic Hurricane Prediction, for their 2016 predictions.

Atlantic Basin


Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2016
Prediction
CSU 2016
Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (12.0) 10-16 12
Hurricanes (H) (6.5)3-85
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) 1-4 2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92.0) 65-140 90

NOAA’s 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 45% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). 
The outlook also calls for an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median, which includes Alex in January
East Pacific

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
NOAA 2016
Prediction
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 13-20
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)7 - 12
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) 3-6
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 70-140


NOAA’s 2015 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook is calling for a 70 percent chance of 15 to 22 named storms, which includes 7 to 12 hurricanes, of which 5 to 8 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).  The outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below normal season.

Measuring total seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season.  According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 117% of the 1950-2000 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value above 175% of the median reflects an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season.
Hurricane Season Dates 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th.
Download the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide (PDF) 



Read Entire Series (click here)
Hurricane Preparedness Week came early this year. As usual we published a series of articles during that week.  Click on the image or link to the right to view the entire series.  

We have been covering hurricane preparedness for years, so if you still need more information, you can check out some of our other articles which can be found via links in our Hurricane Zone page.

We are reminded about some disturbing news, published by the American Red Cross, about how Despite Sandy’s Damage, U.S. Coastal Residents Still Unprepared.



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