|Click (here) for Interactive Map|
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL PASSES WEST OF ST. MARTIN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 63.6W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WNW OF ST. MARTIN ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Carnival swapped out two Caribbean island stops (Grand Cayman and Montego Bay) from Valor's six-night sailing, replacing them with Costa Maya (October 24) and Cozumel (October 25) in Mexico.
Carnival Pride also will forgo two stops, both in the Bahamas (Half Moon Cay and Freeport) in favor of a day at sea (October 25) and Port Canaveral (October 26).
Carnival Glory will call on Nassau (October 24) as scheduled but will not overnight or spend a second day in port, instead departing the Bahamas and spending a day at sea (October 25). Glory will then visit Port Canaveral (October 26) instead of Freeport.
Royal Caribbean's Allure of the Seas will replace a call on Falmouth, Jamaica (October 24) with a day at sea.
Norwegian Cruise Line also is making changes to some of its itineraries, with Norwegian Pearl visiting Cozumel (October 24) and Costa Maya (October 25) rather than Ocho Rios and Grand Cayman.
Norwegian Jewel is stopping at Freeport in the Bahamas (October 24) instead of Great Stirrup Cay, and Charleston, South Carolina (October 26) instead of Nassau in the Bahamas.
Norwegian Sky will skip its stop at Great Stirrup Cay (October 25) and will instead spend an extra day at sea.
Disney Dream will depart Port Canaveral as scheduled on October 25 but will spend October 26 at sea, rather than stop at Castaway Cay. If weather permits the ship will call on Nassau on October 26 as scheduled.
Disney Fantasy, which is currently sailing a seven-night cruise will replace its Castaway Cay visit (October 25) with a day at sea.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS --------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.