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They expect current La Niña conditions to transition to near-neutral conditions during the heart of the hurricane season. Overall, conditions remain conducive for a very active hurricane season.
The April forecast calls for 16 named tropical storms with 9 strengthening to hurricane status. Of those hurricanes, 5 are predicted to be a major hurricane (Category 3,4, or 5). The team forecasts a 72% chance of one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline (compared to 52% for last century) and a 61% chance for the Caribbean (compared to 42% average for last century). More reading: Current and Past Forecasts
|Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 |
Climatology (in parentheses)
8 December 2010
|Issue Date |
6 April 2011
|Named Storms (NS) (9.6)||17||16|
|Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)||85||80|
|Hurricanes (H) (5.9)||9||9|
|Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)||40||35|
|Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)||5||5|
|Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0)||10||10|
|Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)||165||160|
|Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)||180||175|
Another reason why Colorado State University publishes forecasts is for hurricane preparedness. We too are publishing this information, along with updates throughout hurricane season, to help protect life and property when danger approaches. Additional information and links can be found on the Weather Tab of this blog.
As I've said many times, the cruise line industry has safety of passengers, crew, and vessels as their number one priority. The cruise lines work closely with the NHC and other agencies to monitor all sorts of weather conditions, including tropical storms. The ships may alter courses and cancel ports of call in order to maintain the level of safety for all onboard. We will keep you posted about any known itinerary changes during hurricane season. Should your cruise itinerary change due to a tropical storm, don't be upset, but rather thank the Captain and crew for taking you out of harm's way.