GOES-13 captured an image of the
clouds associated with the low called
System 95L on June 28 at 1345 UTC
(9:35 a.m. EDT) over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Cuba is seen to the right, and
the U.S. Gulf coast is north (top)
Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project
The storm is expected to head inland to Northeastern Mexico early on Thursday, prompting tropical storm warnings. The storm should quickly lose strength over land, and it is expected to dissipate on Friday, but not after dropping some heavy rainfall in the area.
The current forecast calls for rain accumulation of 4 to 8 inches with some isolated areas receiving as much as 15 inches. The Mexican states of Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and Eastern San Luis Potosi are in the sites of TS Arlene at this time.
700 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011
...ARLENE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO EARLY TOMORROW...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 95.2W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.